According to TrendForce research, as memory average selling prices (ASP) continue to rise and supplier profits increase, capital expenditure (CapEx) for DRAM and NAND Flash is expected to grow steadily. However, this will provide limited support for bit output growth in 2026. The focus of investment in the DRAM and NAND Flash industries is shifting from pure capacity expansion to process technology upgrades, higher-layer stacking, hybrid bonding, and high-value products like HBM.

In the DRAM sector, CapEx is projected to reach $53.7 billion in 2025 and further increase to $61.3 billion in 2026, a year-on-year growth of 14%. For NAND Flash, CapEx is estimated at $21.1 billion in 2025, with a slight rise to $22.2 billion in 2026, up about 5% year-on-year.

Among DRAM suppliers, Micron Technology is seen as the most aggressive player, with its 2026 CapEx expected to hit $13.5 billion, a 23% increase, primarily targeting 1-gamma process adoption and TSV equipment deployment. SK hynix also shows significant growth, with a projected 2026 CapEx of $20.5 billion, up 17% year-on-year, to support HBM4 capacity expansion at M15x. Samsung plans to invest $20 billion, an 11% increase, focusing on HBM's 1C process adoption and minor P4L wafer capacity expansion.

TrendForce notes that cleanroom space is currently insufficient. Among DRAM suppliers, only Samsung and SK hynix have limited room for production line expansion, while Micron must wait for its new U.S. ID1 fab, which will not contribute output until 2027 at the earliest. Therefore, any upward revisions in CapEx will have minimal impact on 2026 bit output.

In the NAND Flash sector, Kioxia/SanDisk, lacking DRAM operations, is viewed as the most proactive in expanding capacity to strengthen its position. The company plans to invest $4.5 billion, a 41% year-on-year increase, to accelerate BiCS8 production and BiCS9 R&D. Micron aims for a slight NAND Flash capacity boost in 2026, prioritizing G9 process and Enterprise SSD business, with CapEx expected to surge 63%. In contrast, Samsung and SK Hynix/Solidigm will reduce or limit NAND Flash CapEx, shifting investments toward HBM and DRAM.

TrendForce attributes the recent NAND Flash demand surge to AI-driven storage capacity needs and cloud service providers (CSPs) shifting orders due to HDD shortages. This reflects a structural supply gap rather than temporary market fluctuations. However, years of industry cycles have made some suppliers cautious about CapEx and capacity expansion strategies.

With 2026 CapEx prioritizing process upgrades and hybrid bonding over capacity expansion, bit supply growth will remain constrained. TrendForce expects the NAND Flash supply shortage to persist throughout 2026.