Spot gold extended its early Asian session gains on Tuesday, August 18, with prices climbing to around $4,420 an ounce. The primary drivers in the gold market are now shifting from pure safe-haven demand toward a recalibration of monetary policy expectations, dollar dynamics, and geopolitical risks. A weaker-than-expected US July non-farm payrolls report, combined with generally subdued recent inflation data, has dampened market expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. This has weighed on the US dollar, thereby reducing the purchase cost of dollar-denominated gold for holders of other currencies.
On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening upward, with prices holding above the MA20 and MA60, suggesting a structure biased toward a gradual uptrend. However, the hourly RSI is approaching overbought territory, and after consecutive rallies, chasing prices higher is not advisable. In the coming sessions, the key question is not whether gold will rise, but rather the sustainability of any move beyond $4,450—a decisive volume-backed break above this level would solidify the bullish structure, while a failure that pushes prices below $4,380 would signal a technical correction. Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the core catalyst that could break the current high-level stalemate.
Key levels: Resistance at $4,416 and $4,440; Support at $4,380 and $4,365. Evening strategy: Consider buying on a pullback to $4,365±2, and selling on a rebound to $4,416±2, with targets of 20/50 points. [GOLD pivot: $4,405/oz! Note: The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.]
WTI crude saw a modest uptick in early Asian trading on Tuesday. The failure of the US and Iran to renew the June understanding arrangement has escalated their standoff. The US continues to maintain a maritime blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran has signaled a potential escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. This has significantly weakened expectations for global crude supply chain stability, extending the rally in international oil prices. With bullish and bearish forces currently locked in a tug-of-war, the oil market is likely to remain elevated with heightened volatility, and rapid spikes followed by pullbacks within the range should be anticipated.
On the daily chart, short-term buying momentum has recovered, pushing prices back above the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint. The 14-day RSI has climbed back above the 50 neutral mark, indicating a moderate improvement in bullish momentum. On the 4-hour timeframe, the structure is cautiously bullish but faces clear resistance overhead. After ending its earlier sharp decline, oil has entered a high-level consolidation phase, with $84 per barrel now serving as the central battleground for short-term bulls and bears.
Key levels: Resistance at $85.8 and $86.6; Support at $84.0 and $83.0. Evening strategy: Consider buying on a pullback to $83.5±0.2, and selling on a rebound to $86.4±0.2, with targets of 2.0/3.0 per barrel. This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk.