Lithium mining stocks advanced as market expectations strengthened for a contraction in lithium carbonate supply. At the time of writing, Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) rose by 5.67% to HK$56.85, while Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. (01772) climbed 3.88% to HK$82.9.

The movement follows recent developments indicating tighter regulatory control on lithium production. The Department of Natural Resources of Jiangxi Province publicly released assessment reports for mining right transfer revenues involving four porcelain clay mines in Yichun, specifying that mining right transfer fees will be calculated based on the actual extraction volume of lithium resources. This marks the second such announcement since the assessment of the Jianxiawo mine rights last November, signaling that corrective actions for mismatched mining licenses and actual operations in Yichun's lithium mines have entered a substantive phase.

In a related development, the Zimbabwean government has reportedly eased restrictions on lithium concentrate exports, with several Chinese companies having obtained export quotas.

In a research note, Morgan Stanley revised down its 2026 lithium supply forecast to approximately 400,000 tonnes, compared to an earlier projection of around 500,000 tonnes. The investment bank anticipates further tightening of market supply during the peak season from May to August, with shortages expected to emerge starting in September. Overall, Morgan Stanley projects an upward trend in lithium prices in the second half of 2026, noting that demand elasticity will become apparent once prices exceed RMB 250,000 per tonne.