Kaiyuan Securities: Shifting from CRBN-IKZF1/3 Competition to New Substrate Opportunities, Focus on Domestic Molecular Glue Field

Stock News
04/16

Molecular glue degraders represent one technical pathway within the Targeted Protein Degradation (TPD) platform. The industry has currently shifted its focus from "CRBN-IKZF1/3 - Hematological Malignancies IMiDs upgrades" to "New E3 ligases - New substrates - New indications." The period from 2025 to 2027 is expected to see key data readouts from new E3 platforms like Monte Rosa, as well as Phase I/II data from domestic projects such as HP-001, ICP-490, and VAV1 degraders. In the short term, attention is advised on the market share substitution and potential cash flow realization from upgraded CRBN-IKZF1/3 candidates. For the medium to long term, the focus should be on the platform capabilities for discovering novel targets and differentiated indications in autoimmune diseases and solid tumors. Domestically, key points of interest include the clinical readout of HP-001 and the first-in-class opportunity in the VAV1 direction.

Why is there a need for molecular glue TPD to break through the "16% undruggable proteins"? The commercial potential is significant, and molecular glue degraders are one pathway to achieve this. As a technical route within the TPD platform, molecular glues utilize an event-driven pharmacological approach of "making proteins disappear" to target a larger pool of proteins previously considered "undruggable," thereby unlocking long-term incremental potential beyond traditional small molecules/antibodies. Approximately 16% of human proteins are deemed "undruggable," while currently only about 4% of proteins are effectively targeted by traditional drugs. Within TPD, molecular glues may possess higher druggability and commercial efficiency due to their characteristics of being small molecules, lacking a linker, and being orally bioavailable.

What are molecular glues and what is the industry's development status? Molecular glue degraders work by degrading target proteins, reducing their levels to achieve disease suppression. The industry's focus has transitioned from the "CRBN-IKZF1/3 - Hematological Malignancies IMiDs upgrades" paradigm to "New E3 ligases - New substrates - New indications (e.g., GSPT1, VAV1, HuR, NEK7)." Chinese companies are currently primarily in the "fast-follow and me-better" stage within the CRBN-IKZF1/3 track, where the majority of the alpha potential has been secured by multinational pharmaceutical companies; competition for China may lie more in beta opportunities. New incremental value is expected to come from novel E3 ligases, new substrates, and differentiated areas like autoimmune diseases and solid tumors. Globally, rapid progress is being made targeting GSPT1 (e.g., in NSCLC), VAV1 (autoimmune), and NEK7/HuR (inflammation/solid tumors). Data readouts around 2026 from Monte Rosa's three key pipelines and domestic candidates like HP-001 are likely to be critical inflection points for valuation reactions.

Why focus on the molecular glue field now? The 2025-2027 period will see key data readouts from new E3 platforms like Monte Rosa, as well as Phase I/II data from domestic projects such as HP-001, ICP-490, and VAV1 degraders. Currently, the main domestic companies in the CRBN-IKZF1/3 track include Biotheus, InnoCare Pharma, Chaoyang Pharma, CompoBio, and GluBio Therapeutics. Preclinical data indicates that Chaoyang Pharma's core product, HP-001, an oral CRBN molecular glue, demonstrates significant advantages over existing IMiDs and representative CELMoDs in terms of CRBN binding affinity, IKZF1 degradation efficiency, substrate selectivity, and efficacy in preclinical models, showing potential best-in-class characteristics.

Relevant listed companies include US-listed Monte Rosa (GLUE.US) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS.US); A-share listed companies include Yuan Dong Biomed (688513.SH) and InnoCare Pharma (688428.SH).

Risk factors include potential delays in R&D progress, patent barriers, and intensifying industry competition.

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