Goldman Sachs has updated its economic outlook, reducing its forecast for the probability of a US recession occurring within the next 12 months from 25% to 15%. This revision is attributed to the potential for a US-Iran agreement and a significant decline in energy prices.

The firm's analysis indicates that with GDP growth expected to remain at a moderate pace of around 2% and inflation likely to subside, it anticipates the Federal Reserve will refrain from implementing further interest rate hikes. This expectation persists despite the more hawkish-than-anticipated stance observed during the first FOMC meeting under the new chair, Kevin Warsh.