Goldman Sachs: Liquidity Infusion Remains Core Driver for China Property Stock Rebound in Short Term

Stock News
02/02

According to a Goldman Sachs research report, recent reports from the mainland indicate that several real estate developers have confirmed that central regulatory agencies have ceased requiring the monthly submission of the "three red lines" indicator data. The bank's communications with several developers reveal that such monthly reporting was actually suspended a year ago. The subsequent rise in the property sector reflects that, with a genuine recovery in housing demand still distant, liquidity injection remains the core driver for pushing up sector stock prices in the short term. The bank believes it is crucial to monitor whether secondary housing listings will see a significant rebound again in March and April, as this will help assess households' willingness to sell properties at current price levels. If the volume of new listings falls substantially short of expectations, it could indicate that selling pressure in the secondary market is easing, potentially leading to a stabilization of housing prices earlier than anticipated. Concurrently, it is also necessary to observe liquidity support measures targeted at specific developers, demand-side support policies such as mortgage rate subsidies and optimizations to the housing provident fund system, and the potential introduction of large-scale stimulus measures aimed at boosting overall demand and improving the broader employment and income outlook. The bank maintains its "Buy" ratings on China Resources Land (01109), Greentown China (03900), China Jinmao (00817), and China Overseas Land & Investment (00688).

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