Spot gold prices fell through the $4,500, $4,400, $4,300, $4,200, and $4,100 per ounce levels in a single day. Following last week's declines, where international gold dropped nearly 10% and silver fell over 14%, prices for both metals experienced another sharp drop on March 23. During Monday's session, spot gold (London Gold Spot) successively broke below these critical psychological thresholds.

According to Wind data, as of the latest update, spot gold was down 5.93% at $4,225.21 per ounce, having fallen more than 8% intraday to a low of $4,098.25. Spot silver (London Silver Spot) declined 6.42% to $63.54 per ounce, after dropping more than 10% at one point during the session.

In the futures market, as of the latest update, COMEX gold was trading at $4,159.2 per ounce, down 9.09%. COMEX silver was at $62.74 per ounce, a decrease of 9.95%.

Domestically, by the close on March 23, the main Shanghai gold futures contract (2604) had broken below the key technical levels of 1,050 yuan per gram and 1,000 yuan per gram, signaling a breakdown. The contract closed at 940 yuan per gram, down 8.62%. Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver also closed lower. Shanghai gold finished at 938.58 yuan per gram, down 9.62%, while Shanghai silver settled at 15,541 yuan per kilogram, a drop of 13%.

It is noteworthy that although gold performed strongly early in the year, recent repeated adjustments have erased all the gains accumulated since the start of the year for both spot and futures markets, resulting in net losses.

Historically, during past oil crises that led to rising oil prices, gold prices often trended upwards. Why is the performance of precious metals completely opposite this time? Why has gold's safe-haven attribute seemingly "failed"? What trajectory will gold prices follow next?

The decline in precious metals prices is attributed by market views to factors including substantial previous gains, rising real interest rates, and a weakening of their safe-haven appeal. Specifically, regarding profit-taking, Huafu Securities noted that gold's standout performance among assets in 2025 attracted significant attention, increasing its correlation with risk assets and amplifying its volatility. With signs of overseas geopolitical tensions already apparent through negotiations and pressure, combined with prior price increases, there was potential for funds to "sell the fact" and take profits.

Guotai Haitong Securities pointed out that gold, having seen large gains driven by speculative funds, began exhibiting characteristics converging with risk assets. Amid escalating geopolitical conflicts and declining risk appetite, it became vulnerable to liquidity shocks from fund outflows. The primary pressure for this gold correction stems from continuous outflows of American funds. Investment enthusiasm for gold in the American market is highly correlated with interest rate cut expectations; as monetary policy expectations shifted towards potential rate hikes, selling pressure during American trading hours became pronounced.

Regarding real interest rates, Soochow Securities analyzed that rising overseas uncertainties and hawkish signals from major central banks fueled global tight monetary policy expectations, pushing long-term government bond yields significantly higher and putting downward pressure on gold and silver prices. A more hawkish Bank of England, for instance, boosted expectations for tighter policy, strengthening the British pound and euro while the US dollar index showed relative weakness, leading to a rare simultaneous decline in both the dollar index and gold prices. The reason is that gold, as a globally priced asset, is valued based on global real interest rate expectations, not solely US dollar real rate expectations.

Guotai Haitong Securities also indicated that real interest rates have risen noticeably due to market expectations for monetary policy tightening. As a non-yielding asset, gold is negatively impacted by higher real rates. Concerning its safe-haven role, the rally based on避险 demand had already been priced in during late February when overseas geopolitical tensions intensified. When the conflict materialized, profit-taking based on "selling the fact" weakened gold's safe-haven属性.

Historically, overseas geopolitical conflicts that triggered oil crises and drove oil prices higher typically resulted in an overall upward trend for gold. This time, however, gold's performance during rising oil prices has been the opposite. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities analysis highlights a key difference: before 2000, the US was a net oil importer, so rising oil prices negatively impacted its current account, leading to a weaker US dollar and higher gold prices. After 2000, with the US becoming a net oil exporter, rising oil prices benefit its current account, strengthening the US dollar and consequently putting downward pressure on gold. Therefore, the core issue is that, compared to an oil crisis, rising oil prices now provide short-term support for the US dollar, marginally negatively affecting gold.

Despite current headwinds for precious metals—including profit-taking, rising real rates, and higher oil prices—institutions maintain varying degrees of optimism regarding gold's medium to long-term prospects. Guotai Haitong Securities explicitly states that the foundation for a gold bull market remains intact. Short-term, if overseas geopolitical conflicts escalate further, energy prices risk a secondary surge, potentially amplifying inflation concerns and fears of central bank tightening, which could keep gold under阶段性 pressure. However, if oil prices remain elevated for an extended period, inflation expectations could rise significantly. In that scenario, the Federal Reserve, concerned about economic downside risks, might find rapid interest rate hikes difficult, leading real interest rates to fall amid rising inflation expectations, which would benefit gold.

Furthermore, from a trading perspective, Guotai Haitong believes that persistently high oil prices could shift market focus from trading monetary policy tightening to trading "stagflation" (low growth alongside high inflation), potentially opening up new upside for gold. Therefore, over the long term, the logic for gold's medium to long-term appreciation remains solid, and investors could look for配置 opportunities during震荡下跌 phases.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities also emphasizes that the liquidity-driven sell-off does not equate to a trend reversal. Firstly, the sharp gold price decline primarily stems from overseas geopolitical conflicts and hawkish Fed signals, leading to gold being oversold amid a liquidity crisis due to its high liquidity. Consequently, if overseas tensions see阶段性缓解 and oil prices retreat from highs, easing the liquidity shock, gold could present buying opportunities. Secondly, the intrinsic growth momentum of the US economy is weaker now than during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict period, making substantial Fed rate hikes within the year challenging. After a短期 sharp appreciation, the US dollar might中期 revert to a震荡 range, alleviating pressure on gold. Additionally, in a中期 tail-risk scenario where oil prices rise significantly and persistently, eventually triggering global recession risks and shifting expectations from rate hikes to systemic cuts, gold could find support.

Huafu Securities also states that after the liquidity shock, the long-term supportive logic for gold remains. On one hand, central bank gold purchases provide solid support for prices. On the other hand, if overseas geopolitical conflicts persist, they could erode confidence in the US dollar and accelerate de-dollarization trends.

However, Shenwan Hongyuan cautions that while technical indicators suggest gold is oversold and due for a短期 rebound, it is uncertain whether the current level represents the absolute low of this correction cycle.