US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that oil prices could plunge to $40 a barrel once the Iran conflict concludes, a move that would likely pull down bond yields recently climbing to multi-year highs. In an interview with Steve Bannon aired on Friday, Bessent stated, "Once we get through this Iran conflict, I expect oil prices to come down. After that, the oil market will see a very serious oversupply. With a large amount of new supply coming online, crude could fall to $50, or even $40." Brent crude was still trading above $95 a barrel on Friday, near its highest level since last July, while West Texas Intermediate was close to $91.

Bessent noted, "If you look at interest rates, you'll see their correlation with oil prices has hit an all-time high." He also downplayed the significance of Norway's sovereign wealth fund planning to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds. Analysis suggests this adjustment could mean the fund trims its US Treasury exposure by $75 billion. He added, "They're just looking to boost yields by buying other US assets. They want to invest in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, which I fully support."