Strategy and Timing: Why Do Humanoid Robots Rise and Fall?
Review: On the Eve of Rapid Industry Development, Creating a Major Thematic Market
Since the beginning of the year, humanoid robots have experienced a magnificent bull market. The robotics industry has seen frequent catalysts, and automotive parts companies, excelling in large-scale manufacturing with comprehensive process categories, have rapidly entered the robotics track through product development. Currently, approximately 30% of the constituent stocks in the robotics track are primarily automotive parts (SW classification) companies. To thoroughly research the essence behind this round of market performance, we use the SW Auto Parts Index as a reference for our review.
First Phase (September 2024 - February 2025): The index grew from 6,732 to 9,732, with a gain of 44.6%, and PE (TTM) increased from 21x to 30x. During this phase, leading companies represented by Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Tuopu Group generally rose, and the robotics theme gradually gained market recognition.
Second Phase (March 2025 - May 2025): The index declined 3%, with PE (TTM) adjusting from 30x, reaching a low of 27x during March-May. We believe this was mainly affected by China-US tariffs and the automotive sector's anti-involution trend.
Third Phase (May 2025 - June 2025): The index fluctuated narrowly, with leading stocks weakening due to downward revisions in performance expectations, while the industry continues to evolve, brewing new trends.
From market performance perspective: The robotics theme involves numerous individual stocks, with many experiencing gains and losses exceeding 100%
Broad coverage: Robotics theme-related stocks continue to expand, with currently 187 constituent stocks in the robotics theme.
Top-performing robotics-related companies: From August 31, 2024, to July 31, 2025, top-performing stocks all achieved gains exceeding 200%; among them, Shangwei New Materials rose over 1,000% at its peak, while Shuanglin and Changsheng Bearing achieved peak gains exceeding 400%.
From industry background perspective: Main constituent stocks come from automotive parts, with 2024's low valuations + 2025's strong catalysts
Stock price adjustments were sufficient, combining low valuation and low stock price characteristics: From August 2022 to August 2024, the automotive parts sector continued to adjust, with PE (TTM) declining from 50x to 21x. Major leading companies maintained continuous earnings growth with full valuation digestion.
Entering 2025, robotics became a new direction for automotive parts. As this represents an imaginative major track, it opened new growth intervals.
From industry lifecycle perspective: Humanoid robots in 2025 are on the eve of rapid development, potentially experiencing quick volume growth
According to the Gartner growth curve, intelligent robots were in the rapid concept development stage in 2023; by 2024, they entered the expectation decline phase, with hopes of quickly entering the actual mass production period thereafter; the expectation is that the industry's entry into actual volume growth is gradually approaching, with timing potentially exceeding expectations.
From institutional holdings perspective: Fund holding ratios have continuously increased since Q3 2024
As of Q4 2024 fund quarterly holdings, humanoid robotics (self-compiled) track holdings increased to 2.52%. Subsequently, Q1 2025 humanoid robotics holdings broke through key holding levels, indicating that significant incremental funding for this sector in 2025 came from institutions.
Driving factors for leading blue-chip stock prices: Performance + specific progress of company business with overseas clients
Leading blue-chip stock prices are driven by both performance and valuations. Taking Tuopu Group as an example: 1) From late September 2024 to mid-February 2025, valuation repair and enhancement occurred, from approximately 23x PE in 2024 to 33x PE in 2025 (Wind consensus forecast median, corresponding to February 6, 2025); 2) Performance downgrades: Affected by Tesla Motors' downward revised delivery volumes, Tuopu Group's performance expectations were revised down to 3+ billion, with valuations declining to 21x PE for 2025 (Wind consensus forecast median, corresponding to July 10, 2025).
Future outlook: Leading stock price downgrades may be essentially complete: Performance adjustments partially finished (Tesla Motors sales volumes expected to recover sequentially after Q3 2025) + negative factors from the robotics industry may have been largely reflected.
Looking ahead for the full year, the robotics sector's overall adjustment may have ended, with future stock price upside potentially coming from whether performance can improve and valuation catalysts.
Driving factors for second-tier stock prices: Performance + their own progress with overseas clients
Differences between second-tier and leading blue chips: Slightly lower performance certainty and weaker positions in the robotics industry chain.
Taking Yinlun as an example: Main upward phase lagged behind leading blue chips: rapid rise from mid-February to mid-March 2025; Valuations slightly lower than leading blue chips, with relative value effects driving rapid growth. For instance, Yinlun's valuation rose from 15x in January 2025 to 27x in early March (Wind consensus forecast median, March 6, 2025). After mid-March, correction amplitude of 35%, corresponding to current 2025 performance valuation of 18x (Wind consensus forecast median, July 10, 2025).
Future outlook: Leading stock price downgrades may be essentially complete: Performance adjustments partially finished (Tesla Motors sales volumes expected to recover sequentially after Q3 2025) + negative factors from the robotics industry may have been largely reflected.
Looking ahead for the full year, the robotics sector's overall adjustment may have ended, awaiting new core changes from the industry side, with the sector potentially launching a new round of significant market performance.