Key leading indicators for US non-residential construction suggest an impending wave of data center-led development, expected to peak in 2026 and potentially deliver significant economic momentum.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) by Dodge Construction Network shows September's growth slowed to 3% month-over-month but surged 60% year-over-year. Institutional projects jumped 75% annually, while commercial activity rose 53%, primarily driven by data center construction.

With construction projects typically requiring over 12 months from planning to groundbreaking, DMI serves as a 9-12 month leading indicator for construction spending. This implies the surge in data center projects planned this year will translate into actual construction activity by 2026.

Goldman Sachs analyst Susan Maklari notes that mega-projects in data centers and public sectors are reshaping the construction landscape. This contrasts with the weakening Architect's Billings Index (ABI) at 43.3, reflecting how select large-scale projects are restructuring the industry.

The construction peak timing coincides with the 2026 midterm election cycle, potentially providing crucial economic support for the administration.

Construction activity is projected to accelerate significantly in late 2026. The DMI's 3% September increase shows moderation from August's 5% and July's 21%, yet maintains a strong 60% annual growth.

Institutional projects soared 75% year-over-year, concentrated in healthcare and public facilities, while commercial activity grew 53% through data centers and retail developments.

UBS analyst Steven Fisher predicted in a May report that the AI-driven data center construction boom would only materially impact the real economy next year. Fisher stated:

"Further slowdowns are expected before reacceleration in 2026, with stimulus measures and structural forces driving recovery while cyclical factors remain weak."

Fisher anticipates construction spending will regain momentum in the second half of 2026, potentially serving as a key economic driver during the midterm election cycle.