Recently, although the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended the release of official data due to government shutdowns, Wall Street has not been "groping in the dark." Multiple institutions' latest reports indicate that the U.S. job market is steadily losing momentum.

Recently, top institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Carlyle Group, along with private sector data from ADP, have unanimously pointed out that the U.S. labor market is steadily losing its growth momentum.

Bank of America has stated that through analysis of client payroll and deposit data, new evidence of rising unemployment and slowing job growth has been identified. Carlyle Group's feedback from its portfolio companies, along with ADP data, also confirms the slowdown in job growth. Goldman Sachs pointed out in a detailed analysis report:

The slowdown in immigration, reduced government hiring, and macroeconomic uncertainty are the three main reasons behind the recent decline in job growth by approximately 100,000, while the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and tariffs remains limited for now.

Wall Street Consensus: Job Market Momentum is Weakening Independent analyses from several financial giants collectively depict a cooling job market. These observations based on private data provide critical insights beyond official statistics: Goldman Sachs: Its internally compiled labor market tightness index has fallen back to levels seen in 2015, indicating that the environment for job seekers is becoming more challenging. Bank of America: By analyzing its clients' payroll and deposit data, analysts found new evidence for rising unemployment and slowing job growth. ADP Data: Data released earlier this month showed a loss of jobs in the private sector. Carlyle Group: Feedback from its portfolio companies indicated that job growth in the U.S. weakened further in September, continuing the trend of weakness observed in August. Goldman Sachs: Three Key Factors Leading to 100,000 Job Growth Slowdown Goldman Sachs stated in its latest report that the slowdown in immigration, reduced government hiring, and rising macroeconomic trade uncertainty have become the driving forces behind the slowdown in the job market. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius stated:

Comprehensive analysis shows that the slowdown in immigration, reduced government hiring, decreased federal contract funding, and rising uncertainty collectively led to a slowdown in job growth by approximately 100,000.

Core Driver (1): Slowdown in Immigration and Reduced Government Hiring The team of analysts at Goldman Sachs, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, closely examined the pressures facing job creation, with two prominent factors standing out:

Slowdown in immigration inflow: Goldman Sachs estimates that the contribution of immigration to monthly labor growth has declined from 90,000 at the beginning of the year to 40,000 in August. Meanwhile, since January, industries heavily reliant on immigrant workers have seen a monthly job growth reduction of 30,000. This suggests that part of the slowdown in job growth is due to a deceleration in labor supply growth. Reduced government hiring and funding cuts: The decline in government hiring this year has led to a reduction of about 30,000 in overall wage growth. Additionally, federal contract spending has significantly decreased, further suppressing demand for jobs in related sectors.

Core Driver (2): Rising Macroeconomic and Trade Uncertainty Businesses are highly sensitive to macroeconomic outlook and external risks when making hiring decisions. Goldman Sachs' report pointed out the following two uncertainties causing pressure: Macroeconomic risks: This spring, the consensus forecast for GDP among markets has decreased, while expectations for the probability of economic recession have risen. Although the market outlook has moderately improved since then, earlier concerns have prompted companies to be more cautious about expanding hiring. Tariff costs and uncertainty: According to a Federal Reserve survey, some companies are cutting hiring as part of broader cost-saving measures to offset tariff-related costs. While the direct impact of tariffs on hiring seems limited, the associated uncertainty correlates with the overall decline in job growth in affected industries.

Emerging Factor: Limited Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Despite extensive discussions in the market about AI replacing human jobs, Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that there is currently little evidence suggesting that the proliferation of AI (or expectations thereof) is posing significant pressure on the broader labor market. However, effects have started to manifest in certain specific fields:

In industries such as marketing, call centers, and graphic design, job growth has slowed in recent years, with current growth rates falling about 10,000 below pre-pandemic trends. This indicates that the current impact of AI is localized rather than systemic.