Australia Employment Posts Surprise Fall in February, Jobless Rate Steady

Reuters
03-20

SYDNEY, March 20 (Reuters) - Australian employment posted a surprise fall in February, ending a strong run of impressive gains, as the red-hot labour market loosened a little, although the jobless rate stayed steady.

The Australian dollar slipped 0.3% to $0.6340 after the data, while three-year government bonds extended an earlier rally to be up 7 ticks at 96.29.

Swaps still see a scant chance - about 10% - of a rate cut in April, but a move in May is now priced at 78%, up from 70% previously.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment fell 52,800 in February from January, when it rose by a downwardly revised 30,500. That was well under market forecasts for a 30,000 rise.

Annual jobs growth pulled back sharply to just 1.9% from 3.5% the previous month, although that is still in line with long-running averages. The participation rate, which hit a record high of 67.2% in January, slumped to 66.8%.

The jobless rate, however, stayed at 4.1%, matching market expectations.

The ABS noted fewer older workers returned to work in February, contrary to expectations that more people would return after the new year holidays.

"(It) contributed to the fall in employment, with lower levels of employment in the older age groups in February 2025 compared with 2024," said Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates last month for the first time in four years, but cautioned further easing could not be guaranteed given the surprisingly strong labour market could risk stoking inflation.

The central bank has forecast core inflation, which slowed to 3.2% in the fourth quarter, to bottom out at 2.7% later this year, above the midpoint of its target range of 2-3%.

The main inflationary effect of strong employment is typically through rising wages, but wage growth moderated to a two-year low in the last quarter.

"RBA has been obsessing over the danger of wages surging from a strong job market, now it seems they shouldn't have been so worried," said Sean Callow, senior FX analyst at ITC Markets.

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