Against a backdrop of rising global economic uncertainty, the growth momentum of Asian economies has once again become a focal point. On April 17, 2026, during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings, Thomas Helbling, Deputy Director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, stated that regardless of whether the ongoing adjustments in global trade patterns are cyclical or structural, China, as one of the world's largest economies, will continue to play a significant role in global trade. He further indicated that, from a long-term perspective, a higher degree of regional integration would yield substantial benefits, potentially boosting the average GDP for the entire region by approximately 1.8%. The gains are expected to be even more pronounced for smaller economies. For instance, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could see its collective GDP increase by about 4.5%.
An IMF report highlights that, amidst rising global risks, Asian economies are partly benefiting from growth in technology and semiconductor exports, driven by investments related to artificial intelligence (AI). When asked whether this factor could become a source of long-term, sustainable growth for the region or if it might reverse in the face of weaker global demand or tighter financial conditions, Helbling noted that the stronger-than-expected performance of the Asia-Pacific economy in 2025 was significantly supported by robust growth in tech exports, particularly in the semiconductor sector. This trend is closely linked to the rapid global expansion of AI-related investment.
"Artificial intelligence, as a general-purpose technology, is only beginning to be applied within production systems. Its diffusion from the tech sector into broader economic sectors is still in the early stages," he said, suggesting that AI has the potential to be a relatively "persistent" growth driver for the region.
However, he also emphasized that this driver is not without risks. On one hand, if the productivity gains from AI exceed expectations and complement the labor force more strongly, it could further boost growth. On the other hand, current market expectations regarding AI's profit potential might be overly optimistic. A subsequent correction could trigger a pullback in technology investment and related asset prices.
"A correction could lead to a significant decline in investment in the tech sector and related stock prices. Such an adjustment could further weigh on overall economic growth and, through trade channels, affect Asian economies that are major exporters of technology products," he added.
When questioned about whether the ongoing restructuring of global trade is pushing the Asia-Pacific further towards regional integration and what this implies for global efficiency and long-term growth, Helbling first stressed that the IMF consistently believes the objective of trade policy should be to maintain openness, create a more level playing field, and reduce non-tariff barriers and distortions. A more integrated global economy has already helped lift hundreds of millions out of poverty and raised global living standards.
"In this context, we believe there is still significant room to promote regional integration by lowering barriers to trade and investment, which can deliver considerable benefits," he stated.
According to IMF calculations, if countries within the region lower trade barriers, it would have a significantly positive impact on competition, productivity, and economic growth. If all Asia-Pacific economies implement reforms simultaneously, an amplifying effect would also be created through the "external demand channel."
Data indicates that, over the long term, regional integration could raise the overall GDP of the Asia-Pacific by an average of about 1.8%. For smaller economies, particularly some ASEAN nations, the increase could reach approximately 4.5%.
Furthermore, he pointed out that lowering trade and investment barriers helps economies diversify their export markets, reduce costs, and enhance their attractiveness during the ongoing reorganization of global supply chains.
The Asia-Pacific economic outlook released during the IMF Spring Meetings indicates a steady start for the Asian region in 2026. Despite being significantly impacted by US tariff increases implemented in April of the previous year and persistent trade policy uncertainty, Asian economic growth demonstrated resilience in 2025, with trade maintaining strong momentum. Currently, the situation in the Middle East and the ensuing energy supply shocks are pushing inflation higher, weakening external balances, and narrowing policy options. Nevertheless, the IMF predicts that Asia will be the main driver of global economic growth.
According to the baseline forecast in the latest World Economic Outlook, which assumes the energy shock is temporary, the pace of economic expansion in Asia is projected to slow from 5% last year to 4.4% this year and 4.2% next year. China and India are expected to contribute 70% of the region's growth.