————————Market News On Tuesday, September 30th, spot gold continued to hit new record highs against a backdrop of favorable fundamentals, reaching as high as $3,871 per ounce. Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown has strengthened demand for safe-haven gold. Additionally, market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to grow, serving as another key factor driving capital flows toward the non-yielding asset. Tuesday's focus will be on U.S. economic data including JOLTS job openings and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, along with speeches from key FOMC officials, which are expected to dominate dollar demand later in the session and subsequently impact gold's trajectory.
Oil prices continued their decline, currently trading around $62.7 per barrel. Market surveys indicate that OPEC+ will approve plans to increase production by another 137,000 barrels per day in November at this weekend's meeting. Combined with resumed oil exports from the Kurdish region, this has intensified market concerns about global supply surplus prospects, leading to a sharp decline of over 3% in international oil prices yesterday.
————————Gold Trend Analysis and Strategy Gold staged a strong rebound yesterday, closing with a substantial bullish candle on the daily chart and firmly breaking above the $3,800 level. Bollinger Bands are extending upward again, with bullish momentum further strengthening. Gold is poised to challenge even higher levels, with the $4,000 milestone now just within reach. However, it's worth noting that prices are currently extended from daily moving averages, and given the pattern of intraday pullbacks each day, attention should be paid to retracement opportunities for re-entry. On the 4-hour chart, gold plunged from new highs, breaking through short-term moving averages and targeting the 4-hour middle band. As long as the middle band support around 3,784 holds, this upward trend will continue. Therefore, if prices do touch this level, it will present another opportunity to enter long positions.
Gold Strategy: Conservative traders should buy at 3,784-3,782, with a 5-point stop loss and target of 3,870.
————————Oil Trend Analysis and Strategy Oil declined significantly yesterday, closing bearish and breaking through daily moving averages and the middle band, giving back most of last week's gains. This movement was within expectations, as last week's breakout above the range failed to establish a foothold. Further declines may continue today, warranting attention to bounce opportunities at the bottom of the range. On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are opening downward with no signs of a bottom yet. However, downside space is limited, and if further declines occur, long positions can still be considered around the range bottom near 61.5 for a bounce play.
Oil Strategy: Conservative traders should buy at 61.5-61.7, with a 5-point stop loss and target of 65.