Key Points

The U.S. government announced on Thursday its investment in nine quantum computing companies, marking the latest move in the Trump administration's ongoing strategy to acquire stakes in private enterprises. Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi believe quantum company IonQ is the most likely candidate for the next government investment. Micron Technology and private defense firm Anduril Industries are also on traders' radar for potential government stakes.

December 16, 2025, San Jose, California, USA – Micron Technology office. This week, the U.S. government announced stakes in nine quantum computing firms, including IBM, sparking a rally in quantum sector stocks. The Trump administration continues to advance its strategy of acquiring shares in private companies. So, where might the government's "acquisition list" turn next? Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are placing their bets. Traders assign a 32% probability that IonQ will receive a government investment in 2026. IonQ, a quantum computing company, was not included in Thursday's list, but its stock surged over 12% following the announcement and gained another 7% on Friday.

Next is Anduril Industries, with traders giving a 31% probability of a U.S. government stake this year. Anduril is a private defense technology company based in California. Last week, the firm announced a new funding round that doubled its valuation to $61 billion. Founded by Palmer Luckey, the company has close ties to the Trump administration and is involved in the high-profile "Golden Dome" missile defense system project. Finally, traders see a 28% probability that Micron Technology will secure a U.S. government investment. Driven by AI-fueled memory chip shortages, Micron's stock has soared over 160% since 2026. The relevant contracts stipulate that a bet is settled as "true" only after an official announcement or confirmation from the company or a government agency. In August of this year, when the U.S. government first disclosed its investment in Intel, reports suggested it was considering a stake in Micron. However, the proposal did not materialize, with the White House stating at the time that it would not seek investments in chip companies expanding their U.S. operations. Currently, representatives for Micron Technology, Anduril Industries, and IonQ have not responded to requests for comment.