A sharp divergence between financial report data and high-frequency tracking metrics is once again thrusting POP MART into the center of a bull-bear debate. Research notes from J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs on May 12th analyzed POP MART's Q1 performance and April's high-frequency data separately. The former detailed a report card that far exceeded expectations: overall Q1 revenue grew 75%-80% year-over-year, with the Chinese mainland market doubling (+100%-105%) and the Americas market growing 55%-60%. The latter painted a starkly different picture—the US credit card tracking data, long cited by bears as a "core basis for shorting POP MART," showed only low-single-digit positive growth in Q1 and took a sharp downturn in April, falling approximately 43% year-over-year, with a cumulative decline of about 40% so far in Q2. The vast chasm between the financial report and the credit card data raises a fundamental question: how much reference value does this high-frequency indicator truly have? The Q1 results have clearly demonstrated that the credit card data systematically underestimates POP MART's actual sales. However, the high base effect from last year's blockbuster success of the third Labubu plush toy series is now fully materializing in Q2. The steep drop in April's credit card data presents a potential risk signal that investors, while cheered by the strong Q1 performance, cannot easily ignore. **Q1 Financial Report: Across-the-Board Beat, China Doubles, Americas Shines Against Trend** The standout feature of the Q1 performance was multiple markets simultaneously surpassing expectations. Overall revenue growth of 75%-80% YoY exceeded buy-side expectations. By region: China mainland surged 100%-105% YoY, with offline channels growing 75%-80% and online channels soaring 150%-155%; the Americas grew 55%-60% YoY; Europe and other regions grew 60%-65% YoY; the Asia-Pacific region grew 25%-30% YoY. Notably, Goldman Sachs had previously forecasted POP MART's Q1 overall sales growth at around 70% YoY; the actual reported figure was significantly higher. For the Americas market, the stark contrast between the low-single-digit growth suggested by Q1 credit card tracking and the actual 55%-60% revenue increase directly highlights structural deficiencies in the coverage and accuracy of the credit card data for the company's US sales. J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating on POP MART with a target price of HKD 350, implying approximately 24.5x 2026 forecasted P/E and 20.4x 2027 forecasted P/E. For the company's Q1 earnings briefing, market focus centers on: updated full-year regional growth targets, progress on new IP product pipelines, and 2026 profitability guidance. **April Credit Card Data: High Base Effect Bites, US Market Down ~43% YoY** The base effect is now fully taking hold. According to Bloomberg credit card data, POP MART's US credit card sales fell approximately 43% year-over-year in April (following a ~46% YoY decline in March), with a cumulative decline of about 40% so far in Q2. This continues the trend from Q1's low-single-digit positive credit card growth, but the magnitude of the decline has significantly widened. The core explanation lies in the high base from the same period last year: the second quarter of 2025 saw the explosive popularity of the third Labubu plush toy series, accompanied by a substantial increase in supply, which raised the comparative base. The blockbuster effect from that time has now become a heavy "burden" for this year's Q2 year-over-year comparisons. Several auxiliary indicators concurrently signal a phase of cooling in the US market: the average price for Labubu in the US secondary market is at a discount of about 54%; monthly active users (MAU) for the POP MART App in the US have declined sequentially; Google search trends in the US have also seen a slight dip. In contrast, Google search trends in Europe and Southeast Asia remain generally stable, and Southeast Asia App MAU is largely flat, indicating a relatively clear divergence in overseas market trends. **China Market: Strong Online Acceleration, but Secondary Market Premium Continues to Narrow** The operational momentum in the China market remains robust overall, but several marginal changes warrant scrutiny. Combined sales for the Tmall and Douyin flagship stores in April grew 96% year-over-year, accelerating further from 67% in March, corroborating the strong performance of the China business in the Q1 financial report. However, based on tracking data from the Douyin flagship store, while plush toy sales volume in April exceeded March's, the run rate for May (as of May 10th) has lagged behind April's. The continued narrowing of secondary market premiums is a potential warning signal. Major Labubu series are currently at a secondary market discount of about 30%-40%; although recently stabilizing, this is wider compared to March. FIFA plush keychains have shifted from a premium to a discount of about 10%. The average price for the Twinkle Twinkle series has shifted from a low-single-digit positive premium in March to a mid-single-digit negative premium. IPs like Molly, Crybaby, and Dimoo have also seen slight widening of their discounts. The narrowing of secondary market premiums is often a leading indicator of marginal cooling in core IP popularity. Nevertheless, POP MART's efforts in ecosystem development continue to release positive signals. Following its upgrade, tickets for the Beijing Popland were completely sold out during the May Day holiday (May 1st-4th), with average visitor stay duration extending from the previous 3-4 hours to over 6 hours. The company also launched a Labubu co-branded refrigerator, priced at RMB 5,999 with a global limited edition of 999 units, which is already trading at a mid-single-digit percentage premium in the Chinese secondary market. **Bull-Bear Debate: How to Correctly "Price" POP MART?** The Q1 data has already proven that US credit card tracking data has significant limitations in predicting POP MART's actual revenue. The divergence of several dozen percentage points between the two may be partly attributable to the credit card data's blind spots regarding offline cash transactions, gift card purchases, and changes in channel structure. However, even if the credit card data is systematically underestimated, its directional signals cannot be lightly dismissed. The approximately 43% year-over-year decline in April is primarily driven by the high base effect. Yet, this pressure, combined with declining US consumer confidence—Goldman Sachs' US consumer team has revised down its 2026 forecast for US consumer discretionary cash inflow growth a second time to +3.7% (from +4.2% at the beginning of April)—and potential consumer spending contraction in a tariff context, creates uncertainty over whether the US market can achieve positive revenue growth in Q2. At the valuation level, the divergence between the two top-tier institutions is highly pronounced: Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on POP MART with a target price of HKD 184, based on a discounted 2027 forecasted P/E of 15x; J.P. Morgan gives an Overweight rating and a target price of HKD 350—a near doubling of the target price difference. This near-doubling gap in target prices profoundly reflects the high degree of disagreement among institutional investors regarding the company's sustainable growth potential and reasonable valuation. This divergence is likely to persist for a considerable period, at least until the inflection point of the base effect becomes clearer.