The third-quarter earnings reports for A-listed liquor companies in 2025 have concluded. Overall, the combined revenue of 20 listed liquor firms totaled 317.78 billion yuan, down 5.90% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell 6.93% to 122.57 billion yuan. Operating cash flow also declined by 20.85% to 87.71 billion yuan.
In Q3 alone, industry-wide revenue dropped 18.47% to 77.98 billion yuan, with net profit plunging 22.22% to 28.01 billion yuan. Guojin Securities noted that while market expectations anticipated industry consolidation, some companies' performance declines exceeded projections, confirming the sector's ongoing inventory reduction phase. This has somewhat alleviated concerns about the pace of industry adjustment.
Industry expert Cai Xuefei observed that as a cyclical sector, liquor development follows patterns of capacity expansion and consumption trends. Only companies with strong branding, product quality, and sustainable growth capabilities can navigate this adjustment period successfully.
The "Matthew Effect" intensifies
Competition is becoming increasingly polarized, with leading firms strengthening their positions while smaller players struggle.
Profitability showed similar disparities: four companies exceeded 10 billion yuan in net profit, while others faced significant declines. Kouzijiao attributed its slump to weak high-end product sales, lower average prices, and insufficient cost reductions relative to revenue drops.
Inventory pressures mounted industry-wide, with total stockpiles rising 11.32% to 170.69 billion yuan.
Focus on "Brand Value" Upstream production cuts and slowing mid-range sales are squeezing industry performance. National Bureau of Statistics data shows September output fell 15% year-on-year, with January-September production down 9.9%. Many companies reported their first simultaneous revenue and profit declines in a decade.
Market conditions remain challenging across price segments: premium product wholesale prices continue falling, while mid-to-low-end brands engage in price wars to clear inventory. For example, 2025 Feitian Moutai cases dropped 15 yuan to 1,660 yuan/bottle on November 2.
SWS Research estimates Mid-Autumn and National Day holiday demand fell 20-30%, with inventory up 10-20%. The 2026 Spring Festival may face continued pressure due to high existing stockpiles and weak consumption recovery.
Experts suggest leading companies are adapting by optimizing inventory, tightening price controls, launching low-alcohol products for younger consumers, and expanding internationally. This signals a shift from scale-driven growth to brand-value-focused development.
Industry analyst Xiao Zhuqing attributes short-term pressures to shrinking premium consumption scenarios beyond just weakened demand. Looking ahead, Guojin Securities believes the worst may be over, with external constraints easing and prices stabilizing. They suggest viewing valuations from a long-term perspective, as well-positioned companies could break through scale limitations in the next upcycle.
CITIC Securities notes the industry is bottoming out in its third major cycle since the 1990s, with fundamentals potentially hitting their lowest in Q3 2025. The sales inflection point might emerge by Q1 2026.