On September 25, in yesterday's Thursday session, we noted that the US PMI data far exceeded expectations, and Federal Reserve officials continued to release hawkish signals, supporting rising expectations for a Fed rate hike in October, which drove the dollar up to a near two-month high. This directly pressured gold prices. Therefore, in terms of trading, we suggested focusing on upside resistance at $4,274, followed by $4,300, and downside support at $4,235, followed by $4,200.
Looking at the subsequent price action, during yesterday's Thursday European session, gold stabilized at $4,244 and began to rebound. At the US session open, it rose to $4,284 before meeting resistance, and gold prices fell back to $4,244 again. It then quickly stabilized and rebounded, rising to $4,288 before facing resistance, then pulling back to $4,256 where it stabilized. Overall, gold remained under pressure on Thursday, though the short-term pullback was relatively limited, with price action showing a weak and range-bound movement.
A Wolfinance star analyst believes that this week's gold decline, which erased all of last week's gains following the Fed rate hike, was mainly due to rising market expectations that the Fed will continue to tighten policy. Specifically, after last week's Fed rate hike, multiple officials intensively released signals of policy tightening. In addition, the released US September PMI data greatly exceeded market expectations, reinforcing the case for tightening. This pushed rate hike expectations higher, with the probability of an October hike rising to 70% and a December hike rising to 95%. Expectations for Fed rate hikes supported the dollar and Treasury yields, with the dollar rising to a near two-month high and the 10-year Treasury yield rising to its highest since 2007, directly pressuring gold prices.
On the daily chart, after rebounding and meeting resistance, gold has been oscillating under pressure, refreshing a one-week low and showing weak performance. For downside support, attention can be paid to Thursday's low of $4,244, where gold faced pressure and repeatedly tested this level during the day. Next, the $4,200 integer level can be watched. For upside resistance, attention can be paid to the $4,300 integer mark, which is also the weekly Bollinger Band middle rail position. Next is the daily 5-day moving average at $4,330, and the daily Bollinger Band middle rail at $4,360.
The 5-day moving average has begun to form a death cross, the MACD indicator is crossing downward, and the KDJ and RSI indicators are also crossing downward. The short-term technical picture suggests gold faces downside risks.
Gold intraday reference: Fed officials have continuously made hawkish remarks, and market expectations for further rate hikes this year have risen, supporting the dollar and Treasury yields while pressuring gold prices. In terms of trading, it is recommended to adopt a range-bound approach. Upside resistance can be watched at $4,300, followed by $4,330 and $4,360. Downside support can be watched at $4,244 and $4,200.