Abstract

ASML Holding NV will announce its second-quarter 2026 results on July 15, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus forecasts for revenue, margin, net income, and EPS alongside segment trends and analyst views for the near-term setup.

Market Forecast

Market consensus points to second-quarter revenue of 8.95 billion US dollars, implying approximately 17.29% year-over-year growth, with EBIT estimated at 3.12 billion US dollars and EPS at 6.95; year-over-year growth rates are roughly 28.55% for EBIT and 31.23% for EPS. Based on the last report’s margin profile, investors expect gross margin around the low-50s and net margin near the low-30s, while adjusted EPS is projected to grow more than 30% year over year. The main business outlook centers on system sales and service/field options, with continued momentum in leading-edge lithography shipments and services utilization. The most promising segment remains system sales at approximately 6.28 billion US dollars last quarter with double-digit growth, supported by advanced EUV and High-NA demand.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, ASML Holding NV reported revenue of 8.77 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 52.98%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.76 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 31.44%, and adjusted EPS of 7.15, aided by a 13.25% year-over-year revenue increase. Management highlighted operating leverage as revenue scaled, with EBIT of 3.16 billion US dollars growing faster than revenue and EPS rising 19.17% year over year. Main business performance showed system sales revenue of 6.28 billion US dollars and network services and field options net sales of 2.49 billion US dollars, with system sales the key growth driver.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Lithography systems and installed-base services

ASML Holding NV’s core revenue engines are system sales and installed-base services, which together shape quarterly top line and margin mix. The forecast revenue of 8.95 billion US dollars implies a healthy demand cadence for leading-edge lithography tools as logic and memory customers proceed with node transitions. Given the prior quarter’s 52.98% gross margin and 31.44% net margin, modest mix shifts toward higher-value EUV platforms and software options could sustain margins around the low-50% range despite elevated cost absorption from new tool ramps. Installed-base services should provide recurring revenue resilience and help buffer any delivery-timing volatility in system shipments, stabilizing segment profitability.

Most promising business: Advanced EUV and High-NA EUV systems

Advanced EUV and the initial High-NA EUV rollout are poised to underpin medium-term growth, with the latest estimate implying strong year-over-year expansion in EPS and EBIT. System sales of about 6.28 billion US dollars last quarter underscore the magnitude of customer capital commitments at leading nodes, which, if sustained, can support an improved average selling price and service attach rates. As High-NA moves from early shipments toward broader adoption, each delivered system can add materially to revenue and margin mix, while the expanding installed base enhances multiyear service revenue prospects. Execution risks include qualification and cycle timing, but the demand pipeline suggests a constructive backdrop for bookings and shipments across logic and, selectively, memory.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: Bookings mix, margin trajectory, and EUV shipment timing

The market will focus on order intake quality, especially the split between EUV, High-NA EUV, and mature nodes, as this shapes revenue visibility into late 2026. Margin trajectory will be closely watched; investors will likely parse any commentary on costs tied to High-NA ramps and supply-chain normalization to gauge sustainability of a low-50% gross margin profile. Shipment timing for EUV tools can shift revenue recognition between quarters; clarity on logistics and customer readiness will influence sentiment around the revenue cadence into the second half. Any updates on installed-base services growth and software option uptake could also affect EPS leverage and cash conversion expectations.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate recent commentary, with most institutions pointing to continued demand for advanced lithography, supportive bookings, and a favorable margin mix in EUV and High-NA. Well-followed analysts highlight that forecasted revenue growth of roughly 17% year over year, alongside EPS expansion above 30%, reflects an improving cycle for both logic and selective memory customers. The consensus view emphasizes that order momentum and the installed-base flywheel should sustain revenue and profit growth, while execution on High-NA provides an incremental upside lever as deliveries scale. Overall, the majority perspective expects ASML Holding NV to post results broadly in line with to slightly above projections and maintain constructive guidance around margins and EUV-led growth.