Sinolink Securities has released a research report noting that according to TrendForce data, TV panel prices fully stabilized in September 2026, with average prices for 65-inch, 55-inch, 43-inch, and 32-inch panels at US$173, US$123, US$63, and US$35.0 respectively, all flat month-on-month compared to August. Cost-side pressures have become concentrated and visible, with total TV panel costs expected to rise 4%–7% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2026. The three major panel makers — BOE (000725.SZ), TCL CSOT, and HKC — have successively issued price hike notices. On the supply side, the three panel makers plan to halt production and reduce output during the National Day holiday. On the domestic sales front, leading brands are expected to achieve steady growth by leveraging their integrated advantages, strong industry pricing power, and deep reservoir of resources. TCL ELECTRONICS (01070), Hisense Visual (600060.SH), Midea Group (000333.SZ), and Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) are recommended.

TV Panel Makers Issue Price Hike Notices, National Day Holiday Maintenance to Balance Supply and Demand

TV panel makers have issued price hike notices, and National Day holiday maintenance will help regulate supply and demand. According to TrendForce data, TV panel prices fully stabilized in September 2026, with average prices for 65-inch, 55-inch, 43-inch, and 32-inch panels at US$173, US$123, US$63, and US$35.0 respectively, all flat month-on-month compared to August. Monitor and notebook panel prices also remained flat. Cost-side pressures have become concentrated and visible, as AI demand crowds out upstream material capacity in the panel industry. Total TV panel costs are expected to rise 4%–7% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2026. In mid-September, the three major panel makers — BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC — successively issued panel price hike notices. On the supply side, the three panel makers plan to halt production and reduce output at their TV panel factories during the National Day holiday, with back-end assembly lines taking 3–7 days off. TrendForce estimates that the utilization rate of generation 5 and above large-size lines will decline 4.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 79.6% in October. The three major mainland panel makers combined already account for approximately 70% of TV panel supply.

IT panel demand is under pressure. Customers had already front-loaded most of their procurement in the first half of 2026, and order momentum weakened significantly in the second half. Notebook panel procurement momentum from major brand customers is expected to decline more than 20% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, and a double-digit quarter-on-quarter decline in Q4 cannot be ruled out. Monitor panels may follow suit with price increases if the TV price uptrend is confirmed. Looking ahead, rising costs and proactive supply-side contraction support TV panel prices, while a 4% quarter-on-quarter decline in Q4 demand and the seasonal weakness in IT panels remain constraints. Attention should be paid to the transmission of rising panel costs to the gross margins of complete TV sets.

Key Industry Data Tracking

1) Market and sector performance: This week, the CSI 300 Index fell 1.51%, and the SW Home Appliance Index fell 0.52%. Among individual stocks, the top three gainers this week were OGAWA (+46.65%), Hongchang Technology (+28.60%), and Libang Shares (+13.05%); the top three decliners this week were Deye Shares (-9.64%), Hisense Home Appliances (-4.67%), and Sunshine Lighting (-4.56%).

2) Raw material prices: Since this week (9/21–9/25), the copper price index fell 0.32%, the aluminum price index fell 0.26%, the cold-rolled coil index fell 0.25%, and the China Plastic City ABS index fell 1.54%. Month-to-date, the copper price index rose 2.39%, the aluminum price index fell 0.21%, the cold-rolled coil index fell 1.50%, and the China Plastic City ABS index rose 2.56%. Year-to-date in 2026, the copper price index rose 17.25%, the aluminum price index rose 8.98%, the cold-rolled coil index fell 0.25%, and the China Plastic City ABS index rose 18.20%.

3) Exchange rates and shipping: As of September 24, 2026, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 6.75, up 0.00% for the week and down 3.90% year-to-date. This week, the China Containerized Freight Index rose 1.08% quarter-on-quarter.

4) Real estate data: In August 2026, the national cumulative floor area growth rates for residential new construction, construction, completion, and commercial housing sales were -25.5%, -13.2%, -25.6%, and -13.7% year-on-year respectively. Real estate investment and sales remain in an adjustment range, exerting some pressure on medium- to long-term demand for home appliances.

Sub-sector Prosperity Indicators

Sector prosperity assessment: White goods — continued pressure; Black goods — continued pressure; Kitchen and bathroom appliances — stabilizing at the bottom; Robot vacuum cleaners — continued pressure.

Investment Recommendations

On the domestic sales front, leading brands are expected to achieve steady growth by leveraging their integrated advantages, strong industry pricing power, and deep reservoir of resources. On the export front, as the United States enters a rate-cutting cycle, the boost to home appliances from real estate is expected to strengthen. European consumption is expected to maintain a slow recovery. Emerging markets show strong demand continuity driven by penetration rate improvements and demographic dividends. Chinese companies are gradually improving their localized R&D, production, and sales systems, and there is broad space for OBM expansion overseas. TCL ELECTRONICS, Hisense Visual, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home are recommended.

Risk Warnings

Domestic and external demand recovery falling short of expectations, fluctuations in external factors such as raw material prices and exchange rates, changes in shipping and tariff environments, and intensifying industry competition could all adversely affect sector performance.