Recent analysis suggests that Walt Disney should contemplate a complete exit from the streaming media business and revert to a content production and licensing model, a move projected to potentially unlock approximately 40% upside in its share price.

The analysis highlights the difficulty for Disney in competing on scale within the streaming sector against giants like Netflix and YouTube. Its content release strategy, which prioritizes theatrical distribution, is seen as insufficient to support long-term subscriber retention. Concurrently, the value of Disney's intellectual property is rising—according to relevant data, intangible asset investments are growing at an average annual rate of 5.5% from 2020 to 2025, outpacing the 3.2% growth for tangible assets.

Calculations indicate that if Disney abandons direct-to-consumer distribution and shifts to a pure content licensing model, its annual licensing revenue could exceed $15 billion. For the global first-pay licensing window alone—given that Disney's box office scale is triple that of Sony's—it is estimated this could contribute nearly $4 billion in annual revenue. Sony currently generates over $1 billion annually from first-pay movie licensing. Adding revenue from subsequent licensing windows and library content would further increase the total licensing income.

The institution maintains an "overweight" rating on Disney but has reduced its price target from $146 to $125, citing factors including macroeconomic pressures and adjustments to box office forecasts. Influenced by this news, Disney shares rose nearly 2% on Monday. The stock has declined nearly 50% over the past five years, while the S&P 500 index has gained over 70% during the same period.