The Jingluo Mortgage Rate Index (MMI), tracking prevailing mortgage rates for new borrowers, plunged to a three-year trough at 2.05% in June 2025 – a precipitous 75-basis-point monthly decline. Tsao Tak Ming, Chief Vice President at Jingluo Mortgage Referral, analyzed that current H-plan rates under the "H+1.3%" structure sit at 2.47%, remaining 1.03 percentage points below the 3.5% ceiling.

With HIBOR commencing its ascent this month, MMI is anticipated to climb toward approximately 2.5%. June witnessed over 95% of new mortgage clients selecting H-plans. Earlier interventions by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) between late May and June swelled banking system liquidity to HKD 174 billion, triggering HIBOR's sharp retreat. The one-month HIBOR average nosedived 79 basis points to 0.68% in June versus May's 1.47%, dragging MMI downward.

Recent repeated triggers of the weak-side convertibility guarantee compelled HKMA to purchase HKD, slashing banking reserves to HKD 864.29 billion. This propelled HIBOR's volatile recovery, with the one-month rate holding above 1% for eight consecutive sessions at 1.17%.

Tsao cautioned that substantial HK-US rate differentials sustain profitable carry trades, risking renewed weak-side guarantee triggers. Further HKMA interventions could shrink banking reserves and potentially drive HIBOR toward 1.5%. Prospective property buyers were urged to vigilantly track market dynamics and interest trajectories.