On September 28, the MA2611 contract rose 4.7%.
On September 26, Trump rejected Iran's proposed 7-day plan and considered resuming bombing after the midterm elections. Meanwhile, the meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state agreed that Iran should fulfill its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, and no country or institution should impose tolls on international waterways.
Continue to monitor the development of the Middle East situation. On the methanol front, port inventories remain at low levels. The spot basis of Taicang port against the 2610 contract once surged to a historic high of 1,050 yuan/ton intraday, then fell back to around 930 yuan/ton. The extremely high basis reflects the reality of tight port inventories. Iran's shipment volume in September remained low, and the recovery in October imports is expected to be limited. Although Iranian plant utilization has rebounded somewhat, actual Iranian shipment volumes are tied to the progress of the geopolitical situation. ZPC has one line running and one idle, while Marjan, Busher, and Apadana are operating. Kaveh has also joined the restart list, with the remaining Kimiya, Sabalan, and Arian awaiting restart.
On the downstream MTO side, Ningbo Fund has implemented maintenance as of September 19, with restart timing undetermined. Shandong Lianhong Xinke resumed operations in late September, Lianhong Gerun is running at 60% capacity, and Hengtong shut down on September 18. Tianjin Bohua underwent maintenance on August 20 and recovered to 60% operation in mid-September. Luxi, Xingxing, and Silbang remain under continuous shutdown.
Methanol currently maintains a low-inventory, high-basis pattern, and the cautious long hedging view is maintained.
Risk Disclosure: US-Iran geopolitical developments; the pace of Iranian methanol plant restarts. Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1289.
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