COMEX gold experienced a brief uptick overnight before settling into a sideways consolidation pattern, maintaining a range-bound movement without a clear directional breakout.

Geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing US-Iran negotiations, continue to be the primary driver of market sentiment. According to Iranian media reports, the text of a "memorandum of understanding" has not been finalized, and Iran has not formally agreed to any terms, with details still under negotiation. Despite this, recent price action in both crude oil and gold reflects a prevailing market expectation that a phased agreement will be reached. The downward pressure on oil and the narrowing of gold's geopolitical risk premium both indicate that markets have already priced in a degree of de-escalation. Based on the current negotiation pace, a signed agreement remains the most likely baseline scenario. However, the timing and specific terms of the deal remain uncertain, requiring traders to maintain close watch.

Overall, sentiment in the gold market has moderated compared to previous periods, supporting a cautiously optimistic short-term outlook. Strategically, the medium-term approach of accumulating positions on dips remains valid, but expectations for gold's price range in the first half of the year should be adjusted downward, avoiding over-optimism regarding the speed of geopolitical easing. Going forward, the key focuses will be substantive progress in the US-Iran talks and policy signals from the Federal Reserve. Marginal changes along these two primary lines will be the core basis for determining gold's future direction.