MicroStrategy, dubbed the "crypto leader stock," faces a potential risk that could shake its market position: possible exclusion from MSCI's global indices. In a recent statement, index giant MSCI proposed removing companies holding substantial digital assets as treasury reserves (termed "Digital Asset Treasuries" or DATs) from its global investable market indices. As a prominent example known for its massive Bitcoin holdings, MicroStrategy is at the forefront of this scrutiny.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, suggest this speculation may be contributing to recent pressure on MSTR's stock price. They warn that if excluded, MicroStrategy's valuation could face "considerable pressure," as passive mutual funds and ETFs tracking MSCI indices would be forced to sell their holdings.

Nikolaos estimates that of MicroStrategy's approximately $59 billion market capitalization, around $9 billion is held by index-tracking investment vehicles. Specifically, about $2.8 billion is tied to MSCI-tracked funds. This implies a potential forced sell-off of $2.8 billion if the exclusion proceeds.

Despite founder Michael Saylor's emphasis on the company's substantive software business—aiming to distinguish it from pure investment vehicles—market attention remains fixed on MSCI's final decision. The outcome will test this "Bitcoin whale's" positioning and future in traditional finance.

**Can the Market Absorb the Shock?** Could such a sell-off overwhelm MSTR's stock? Industry analyst James Seyffart argues that while the pressure is significant, it may still be within market tolerance. Year-to-date 2025 data shows MSTR's average daily trading volume slightly exceeds $4.8 billion. A $2.8 billion sell order would represent nearly 60% of its daily liquidity. Seyffart notes the trade is "clearly enormous" but likely within MSTR's liquidity capacity, though concentrated selling would undoubtedly pressure the stock short-term.

**Debate Over MicroStrategy's "Dual Identity"** Amid reclassification risks, Saylor publicly defended the company on X, stressing MicroStrategy operates a "very real, $500 million software business." This view finds some backing. Less than a year ago, Nasdaq Global Indexes included MicroStrategy in the Nasdaq 100, partly acknowledging its tech credentials. Investors now await whether MSCI will concur.