Market Analysts Project Alibaba's Cloud Revenue to Surpass 33% Growth This Year

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According to a research report released by BOCI, a meeting was held with experts from China's cloud computing industry on February 3. The main topics discussed included the outlook for the domestic cloud market size and growth rate by 2026, the competitive landscape of domestic cloud providers globally, progress in AI integration, and the outlook for Alibaba-W's (09988) cloud business and capital expenditure for the 2026 calendar year. Experts estimate that the domestic cloud computing market will grow by 20-30% year-on-year in 2026, reaching RMB 450-500 billion, with AI cloud services expected to contribute the largest incremental growth (the AI cloud market is projected to double year-on-year to RMB 100 billion by 2026). Experts believe that Alibaba, due to its full-stack AI capabilities and extensive existing customer base, will be able to capture 80% of the incremental AI cloud market by 2026, as publicly stated by the company. Experts project that Alibaba's cloud revenue for the 2026 calendar year will increase by more than 33% year-on-year, reaching approximately RMB 200 billion, with external and overseas cloud revenue growth outpacing that of internal and domestic cloud services. In the medium to long term, cloud business profit margins are expected to improve due to the increasing proportion of high-priced AI cloud services, particularly AI PaaS, and enhanced sales efficiency. Regarding capital expenditure, experts estimate that Alibaba will invest RMB 160-180 billion in the 2026 calendar year, with 70% of the budget allocated to purchasing AI servers, including AI chips.

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