Nickel futures experienced a modest rebound, supported by a weaker US dollar index. Overnight, LME nickel closed up 0.14%. The latest settlement price for LME nickel was $17,815 per tonne, an increase of $25, with trading volume reaching 7,561 lots. In the domestic market, the overnight session for SHFE nickel settled at 135,560 yuan per tonne, rising 230 yuan, or 0.17%. LME nickel inventories as of June 15th were reported at 274,932 tonnes, a slight decrease of 6 tonnes from the previous day.

According to market analysis, SHFE nickel contracts opened mostly higher today. The main July 2607 contract opened at 136,860 yuan per tonne, up 1,530 yuan from the previous close. By 9:15 AM, the July contract was quoted at 135,160 yuan, down 170 yuan, indicating a narrow consolidation after the higher opening.

Macroeconomic Backdrop

A key shift in the overseas macroeconomic landscape has emerged. The implementation of a US-Iran peace agreement has significantly eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, mitigating tail risks to energy supply. The subsequent retreat in crude oil prices has helped cool global inflation expectations. The US dollar index weakened to hit a new low for the period, while US stock markets rallied collectively, leading to a broad recovery in market risk appetite and a rapid ebb in panic sentiment.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its June meeting continue to strengthen. This, combined with the weaker dollar, has facilitated a valuation recovery for dollar-denominated industrial metals. LME nickel has ended its consecutive period of weak consolidation. Furthermore, the anticipation of domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth is gaining traction. These combined internal and external macro factors are solidifying support for nickel prices.

Supply-Demand Dynamics in the Nickel Industry Chain

The nickel supply chain exhibits a structural divergence across five major product categories. On the raw material front, reduced mining quotas in Indonesia are tightening the supply of high-grade laterite nickel ore. Globally, high-quality sulfide nickel resources remain scarce with long lead times for production increases, keeping primary nickel raw materials in a tight balance.

In the intermediate product segment, the supply of nickel matte for circulation is steadily increasing, but downstream production lines lack sufficient adaptation. Nickel hydroxide cobalt operations are facing cost pressures and reduced operating rates, leading to persistently tight spot availability. Recycled nickel output is growing steadily, but its high-purity material content is relatively low, making it difficult to substitute for high-end demand that requires primary, first-class nickel.

Consequently, the entire industry chain is characterized by a supply-demand mismatch: a visible surplus in secondary nickel and a structurally tight balance for primary, first-class nickel.

Market Outlook and Price Forecast for Nickel

For June 16th, the international market's core focus will be on marginal US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy stance. The key variables for the day will be whether the US dollar index can extend its decline and if the risk-on sentiment in US equities continues to spread. On the industry side, it is crucial to monitor the implementation progress of the temporary operational freeze policy for Indonesian mining companies and the extent of adjustments in domestic stainless steel production schedules.

In the short term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong, consolidative trend, buoyed by the improved macroeconomic sentiment. The core trading range for nickel is anticipated to be between 135,000 and 136,000 yuan per tonne. However, the persistently high global LME inventories, remaining above 270,000 tonnes, continue to cap the upside potential for prices.

A more sustained uptrend in the medium term will require tangible signs of recovery in downstream demand and a drawdown in inventories. The overall outlook maintains a judgment of range-bound consolidation.