According to a research report released by BOCOM INTL (03329), the US interest rate hike cycle is expected to continue, though the pace may see adjustments, with the Federal Reserve potentially holding off on a rate increase in October.

The report noted that before the release of September employment data, interest rate futures markets indicated less than a 30% probability of a rate hike in October, with a December increase being the baseline scenario. Following the data release, the probability of an October hike dropped further to only about 20%.

Although September US nonfarm payroll data came in weaker than expected, it was not sufficient for the Fed to conclude its rate hike cycle. The institution believes the Fed will most likely continue waiting for more data, especially inflation figures, before making a decision, and maintains its previous view that the Fed may raise rates one more time this year, with the timing leaning toward December.