Warsh Gains Momentum! Prediction Market Data Shows Higher Odds for Fed Chair Nomination Than Hassett

Stock News
2025/12/16

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has emerged as the frontrunner for President Trump's nomination as the next Fed chair, overtaking Kevin Hassett as doubts grow within Trump's camp about Hassett's candidacy. Data from prediction platform Kalshi on Monday showed traders pricing Warsh's nomination probability at around 46%, slightly higher than Hassett's 39%. Just last week, Hassett's odds had peaked at 77%, while Warsh's stood at a mere 10%, marking a dramatic reversal in a short span. Sources familiar with the matter attribute this shift to new opposition against Hassett among senior figures in Trump's inner circle. Advisors with direct access to the president reportedly worry that Hassett—currently serving as director of the National Economic Council—has become too closely aligned with Trump, potentially undermining the Fed's institutional independence and credibility. Such resistance may also explain the earlier turbulence in the nomination process earlier this month. Interviews originally scheduled for early December were abruptly canceled, though in Warsh's case, they were later rescheduled and completed last week, according to insiders. Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, has long been viewed as a credible Republican candidate for the central bank's top job. By contrast, Hassett's deep ties to the White House as a core member of Trump's economic team across two terms are now seen by some advisors as a potential liability. Market bets on the shifting odds accelerated last week after Trump initially told media he had finalized his pick, only to later name Warsh among the "top tier" of candidates during an interview, injecting fresh uncertainty into the high-stakes selection process.

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