On May 22, Alcoa rose 5.39% in regular trading, trading at $71.03/share, with trading volume of approximately $91.36 million. The rally was driven by a dual catalyst of an analyst upgrade and intensifying global aluminum supply disruption.

UBS upgraded Alcoa from Neutral to Buy and raised its target price from $75 to $80. Concurrently, Middle East geopolitical conflict has resulted in over 3 million tons of annualized aluminum smelting capacity being damaged or shut down, pushing LME aluminum prices above $3,600 per ton. Citi raised its second-half aluminum price target to $4,000 per ton. Institutions estimate the global aluminum supply-demand gap will reach 1.4 to 1.8 million tons, with capacity restart cycles exceeding 12 months, making structural supply tightness difficult to resolve in the near term.

Within the Aluminum sector, stocks broadly strengthened. Century Aluminum rose 4.85%, Kaiser Aluminum gained 1.62%, and Constellium NV added 1.25%.

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