JPMorgan has released a research report indicating that Apple's (AAPL.US) upcoming Q4 FY2025 earnings are expected to show positive results, primarily due to the resilience of its services revenue and its efforts to shift production for the U.S. market outside of China. Analysts led by Samik Chatterjee noted in the report: "Before Apple's Q3 earnings release, investor focus centered on the impact of 'external link payments' on services growth. However, Q3 services revenue growth accelerated to around 13%, with Q4 guidance suggesting a similar pace, indicating minimal overall impact from 'external link payments.'"

Apple introduced "external link payment" options in its App Store following a federal court ruling requiring the company to allow users to make in-app purchases through external channels—part of its long-standing legal dispute with Epic Games.

JPMorgan also highlighted Apple's swift action to relocate some U.S.-bound production from China to countries like India and Vietnam, mitigating risks from semiconductor-related tariffs. Chatterjee added: "Looking ahead to the upcoming earnings and guidance, we expect Q4 FY2025 revenue to show strong high-single-digit growth, with FY2026 Q1 outlook reinforcing Apple's position in a positive product cycle. However, upside surprises and consensus estimate revisions may stem from margin improvements—driven by easing tariff pressures and structural profit optimization from steady services growth."

"For investors seeking clear upside potential, Apple shares remain attractive: the strong iPhone 17 cycle provides visible momentum, likely followed by another robust cycle with the iPhone 18 series (including a foldable iPhone)."

Apple is scheduled to report earnings on October 30 (ET). Consensus estimates project EPS of $1.77 and revenue of $102.19 billion, compared to $1.64 EPS and $94.93 billion revenue in the year-ago quarter.