Abstract

First Horizon National will report Q4 results on January 15, 2026 Pre-Market, with consensus looking for modest revenue growth and resilient profitability amid credit normalization and stable net interest margins.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of $859.01 million, an adjusted EPS estimate of $0.46, and EBIT of $329.67 million, with year-over-year revenue growth of 4.67%, EPS growth of 17.32%, and EBIT growth of -2.64%. The quarter is expected to feature stable net profit trends supported by steady net interest income and disciplined expense control, while gross profit margin is not available in the forecast and net profit margin is not disclosed in forecasts. The main business outlook centers on Commercial, Consumer and Wealth banking delivering steady fee and spread revenues as deposit costs normalize and loan growth remains disciplined. Wholesale banking is positioned for balanced activity recovery with improving capital markets and treasury flows, while Commercial, Consumer and Wealth is viewed as the most promising segment given revenue of $777.00 million last quarter and resilient customer activity with supportive year-over-year momentum.

Last Quarter Review

First Horizon National’s last quarter delivered revenue of $889.00 million, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $262.00 million with quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 8.71%, a net profit margin of 29.31%, and adjusted EPS of $0.51 with year-over-year growth of 21.43%; gross profit margin was not disclosed. A notable highlight was a positive earnings surprise versus prior estimates, with EBIT of $347.00 million exceeding the forecast and adjusted EPS outpacing expectations, supported by stable net interest and fee income alongside firm credit costs. Main business performance was led by Commercial, Consumer and Wealth at $777.00 million revenue, Wholesale at $133.00 million, and Corporate at -$21.00 million, with Commercial, Consumer and Wealth demonstrating the strongest contribution to topline.

Current Quarter Outlook

Commercial, Consumer and Wealth Banking

The Commercial, Consumer and Wealth franchise remains the core earnings engine this quarter, underpinned by stable loan demand in targeted sectors, disciplined pricing, and ongoing deposit mix optimization. Management’s guardrails around credit underwriting and focus on relationship banking support consistent spread income even as benchmark rates fluctuate. Fee-based activity from wealth and retail services provides partial insulation against rate spread pressure, aiding revenue diversification and EPS visibility. With last quarter’s $777.00 million revenue contribution and healthy customer engagement, this business is positioned to sustain moderate growth, though seasonal patterns and competitive deposit pricing could temper margin expansion. The expected EPS trajectory reflects operating leverage from efficiency initiatives and selective growth in high-return lending relationships.

Wholesale Banking and Markets-Linked Activities

Wholesale banking is set for a measured rebound in transaction flows and advisory, leveraging improved corporate sentiment and stabilized capital markets access. Treasury, cash management, and syndications may see incremental activity as clients adjust balance sheets for 2026 capital spending plans, while risk appetite remains balanced. Revenue contribution of $133.00 million last quarter outlines a manageable base from which recovery can build, but earnings sensitivity to deal timing and spreads suggests variability within the quarter. Expense discipline and credit vigilance are crucial for maintaining EBIT resilience, with the forecast implying slightly lower EBIT year-over-year as the franchise invests selectively to support client demand. The mix shift toward fee-led wholesale services could offer modest EPS support if spreads remain steady.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings performance hinges on net interest margin stability, deposit cost management, and credit normalization trends across commercial and consumer portfolios. A steady net profit margin last quarter at 29.31% sets a constructive backdrop, yet yield curve movements and competitive deposit rates can influence earnings translation to EPS. Operating leverage from prior efficiency measures and the maintenance of underwriting standards are central to protecting profitability. If loan growth is cautious and fee income holds, the company can deliver the forecast EPS outcome; any uptick in nonperforming loans or higher provisioning could weigh on EBIT and net income, while better-than-expected fee revenue and stable funding costs would be supportive.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional views skew cautiously bullish. Barclays maintained a Buy rating with a $26.00 price target, highlighting earnings resilience and balanced growth drivers. D.A. Davidson reiterated a Hold at $24.00, noting stable fundamentals but monitoring credit cost trends and margin sensitivity. The balance of commentary leans constructive on near-term earnings delivery, with the Buy-side view outnumbering Neutral/Hold in directional optimism. The bullish perspective emphasizes disciplined credit, steady net interest income, and cost control as supportive of meeting or slightly exceeding the quarter’s EPS forecast of $0.46, while caution centers on wholesale activity timing and deposit pricing pressure. Overall, the prevailing outlook anticipates a modest beat is achievable if credit metrics remain stable and fee income tracks to plan.