European natural gas prices climbed sharply this week after Iran and the United States exchanged attacks on oil tankers over the weekend, intensifying concerns that supply disruptions will persist and that the Middle East conflict remains far from a resolution. Benchmark futures jumped as much as 4.5%, with trading levels hovering near three-year highs.

Iran announced it had struck US-linked vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz without authorization, and warned of plans to establish new restricted zones beyond the waterway. The US military earlier reported that it had targeted three Iranian oil tankers. The renewed hostilities mark an escalation after a period of relative calm, driving a significant rally in European gas prices last week.

The heightened tensions have dampened hopes for a swift recovery in liquefied natural gas supplies, with roughly one-fifth of global LNG cargoes still held up in the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, several Qatari LNG carriers have been spotted heading back toward the Gulf, suggesting the supplier may be repositioning its fleet in preparation for a potential resumption of exports. Last month, Qatar extended force majeure declarations on LNG deliveries to European and Asian buyers through October and November, and the ongoing uncertainty over supply restoration continues to underpin elevated price levels.

The disruption to global LNG shipping is complicating Europe's efforts to refill storage ahead of winter, with current inventories at their lowest level for this time of year on record. Analysts at ING noted in a research report that market "fragility is increasing" as the 2026-2027 heating season approaches, underscoring the precarious balance between supply risks and seasonal demand.