UBS has adjusted its earnings per share forecast for Goldwind (02208) downward by 10% to 18% for the years 2026 to 2028. This revision primarily reflects lower profitability in the wind farm segment and short-term margin pressure stemming from the Middle East conflict. Despite this, the bank increased its target price for the stock from HK$25 to HK$26.9. The new valuation equates to a projected 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times for the wind turbine business and a doubling of the price-to-book ratio for the wind power operations. The "Buy" rating was reaffirmed.

Goldwind's fourth-quarter performance last year fell short of market expectations due to impairment losses. However, the outlook for its wind turbine division remains positive. For the full year, the company reported a net profit of RMB 2.8 billion, marking a 49% year-on-year increase. The fourth-quarter net profit was RMB 190 million, up 178% year-on-year but down 83% quarter-on-quarter, missing expectations mainly because of an RMB 1.1 billion impairment loss recorded in the wind farm business.

The bank noted that benefiting from improved average selling prices driven by reduced internal competition within the wind industry and increased overseas shipments, Goldwind's gross margin for last year reached 8.95%, a rise of 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous year. Although the Middle East conflict is causing short-term volatility in international shipping and raw material costs, pressuring margins for the current year, UBS projects that gross margins could reach between 12% and 15% from 2027 to 2030, maintaining an optimistic view on the long-term margin outlook.