Elon Musk stated on Thursday that he expects SpaceX to generate annual revenue of $3.5 trillion by around 2033, a timeline that arrives seven years earlier than Morgan Stanley's previous projection of 2040.

Earlier this month, Musk also predicted that SpaceX would surpass $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, one year ahead of prior estimates made before the company's IPO.

The stock's trading pattern has shifted notably since its early listing days. After initially ranking among the most volatile large-cap stocks, SpaceX shares have traded within a narrow $10 range around $140 over the past three weeks. Implied volatility has dropped from above 120 pre-earnings to 57. On Thursday, SpaceX closed up 0.89%, with Musk's comments driving a modest late-session rally.

Volatility Collapse Signals a New Era for the Once-Hottest Stock

The volatility profile of SpaceX is undergoing a fundamental transformation.

According to ThinkOrSwim data, implied volatility has fallen from over 120 before the earnings report to 57. At the time of its debut, if SpaceX had been included in the S&P 500, it would have been the index's most volatile constituent. At current levels, it would not even rank in the top 25.

Noel Smith, founder and chief investment officer of options analytics firm Convex Asset Management, accurately predicted in June that SpaceX volatility would decline sharply. He likened the shift to a "wild man raised by wolves in the forest" adapting to city life — "SpaceX has now moved into the city."

Market participants attribute the volatility decline to several factors: insiders and early investors choosing to hold their positions after the first lock-up period expired, and the stabilizing effect of passive index fund allocations following SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000 indices.

Options Market Shows Mixed Sentiment with Recent Bullish Lean

The current options positioning in SpaceX still shows a slight bearish tilt. According to Barchart's open interest data, the put/call ratio stands at 1.1, down from the all-time high of 1.2 recorded on Monday.

However, this week's volume trends have shifted toward call options. Of the roughly 500,000 SpaceX option contracts traded on Thursday, 335,000 were calls, with approximately 168,000 actively bought, compared to just 75,000 actively purchased puts.

All seven of the most actively traded contracts by volume were calls, led by the $144 strike expiring this Friday — a position that requires the stock to rise about 3.5% more this week to become profitable. Weekly contracts expiring on September 25 imply an expected price swing of roughly $16, or about 11%.

Analysts Caution: Lower Volatility Doesn't Mean Cheap Options

Despite the significant drop in implied volatility, analysts caution investors against simply interpreting it as a signal to enter long or short options positions.

Current implied volatility for SpaceX remains above the stock's realized volatility, meaning the actual cost of options may not be as inexpensive as it appears on the surface.

"Relative to its own history, it's the cheapest it's been, but that doesn't say much," said Noel Smith. "I think current volatility is at a fairly reasonable level, but if you forced me to take a stance, at a volatility level of 54 or 55, I would still be a seller of volatility."