UBS has issued a research report projecting China's thermal coal price to range between RMB 750 and RMB 800 per ton for the full year of 2026. Potential price increases are expected to concentrate during the May to June summer restocking period, when procurement could be influenced by high international energy prices and supply fluctuations from Indonesia. Under tight supply conditions, prices might briefly test RMB 900 per ton, but the likelihood of a sustained surge remains low, given China's policy-responsive supply coordination capabilities. The bank forecasts QHD5500 coal prices at RMB 750, RMB 720, and RMB 670 per ton for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, reflecting minor impacts from tightening global energy markets and Indonesia's quota reductions. UBS has assigned a "Neutral" rating to CHINA SHENHUA (01088) with a target price of HKD 48 for its H-shares. Meanwhile, YANKUANG ENERGY (01171) and Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH) have been maintained at "Sell" ratings with target prices of HKD 11.4 and RMB 22.8, respectively, as current share prices have already outpaced fundamentals.