On Wednesday, oil prices fell for the second consecutive day, remaining near a five-month low due to escalating international trade tensions and the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of a supply surplus by 2026.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil contract for November delivery dropped by $0.43, or 0.73%, settling at $58.27 per barrel.

Brent crude contract prices decreased by $0.48, or 0.77%, closing at $61.91 per barrel.

Bank of America stated that if U.S.-China trade tensions escalate and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) increase production, Brent crude prices could plunge below $50 per barrel.

On Tuesday, the IEA indicated that the global oil market could face a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day next year due to OPEC+ and other oil producers ramping up output amid sustained weak demand, exceeding previous predictions.

The trade dispute between the U.S. and China, the world's two largest oil-consuming nations, intensified last week as both countries imposed additional port fees on cargo ships trading between them. This retaliatory measure could disrupt global shipping flows.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasized on Wednesday that Washington does not wish for the trade conflict to worsen, highlighting President Trump's readiness to meet with the counterpart later this month in South Korea.

Last week, China announced it would tighten rare earth export controls, while Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 100% and tighten software export restrictions starting November 1.

On Wednesday, the UK took action against two major Russian oil companies—Lukoil and Rosneft—along with 51 oil tankers identified as a "shadow fleet," marking a new initiative to strengthen energy sanctions and cut off Kremlin revenue sources.

According to U.S. energy data, Russia is the world's second-largest crude oil producer after the U.S. Increased sanctions due to Moscow's war with Ukraine are expected to remove more Russian oil from the global market.

The Azerbaijan Ministry of Energy reported on Wednesday that the country's oil production from January to September decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, falling from 21.6 million tons last year to 20.7 million tons this year.

Azerbaijan is a member of the OPEC+ group, which is comprised of OPEC and its allies.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) were scheduled to release the U.S. weekly inventory data on Wednesday and Thursday; however, the reports are delayed by one day due to the Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day holiday on Monday.

Analysts predict that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by approximately 200,000 barrels last week.

If accurate, this would mark the third consecutive week of rising storage levels for energy companies, the first increase since April. In contrast, inventories a year ago had decreased by 2.2 million barrels, while the average increase for the same period over the past five years (2020-2024) was 1.1 million barrels.