In the geopolitical arena, the cycle of strikes between the US and Iran has escalated further. After the US military announced the destruction of five Iranian oil tankers, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared it had targeted a US base in Jordan and conducted strikes on two American warships, eight oil tankers, and ten vessels deemed to be in violation. Iran has also announced the establishment of a new maritime "sanctions zone" and laid out its terms for a ceasefire, which include a complete halt to military operations, a renunciation of future threats, the unfreezing of $24.4 billion in Iranian assets, and an end to interference in its nuclear capabilities and missile development programs.

On the monetary policy front, at least one-third of Federal Reserve officials have indicated a willingness to reduce the frequency of policy meetings to set interest rates. This provides an early opening for one of the most significant structural changes proposed by incoming Chair Warsh. Cleveland Fed President Hammack, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson have all recently expressed openness to holding fewer rate-setting meetings.

Regarding futures prices and trading volume on 2026-09-09, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 953.98 yuan/gram and closed at 952.22 yuan/gram, a change of -0.09% from the prior day's settlement. Trading volume for the day reached 41,087 lots, with open interest at 129,725 lots. During the overnight session, the main gold contract opened at 952.12 yuan/gram and settled at 956.04 yuan/gram, up 0.40% from the afternoon close. The main Shanghai silver contract opened at 16,198.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 16,224.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.61% from the previous close, with volume of 392,013 lots and open interest of 197,407 lots. In the overnight session, silver opened at 16,155 yuan/kilogram and finished at 16,529 yuan/kilogram, up 1.88%.

Turning to US Treasury yields, the 10-year yield stood at 4.80% on 2026-09-09, a change of 0.01% from the previous session, while the spread between the 10-year and 2-year notes was 0.41%, down -0.02%.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, for the Au2610 contract, long positions changed by +3 lots and short positions by -3 lots. Total turnover for gold contracts reached 274,133 lots, a 16.96% increase from the previous day. For the Ag2610 contract, long positions changed by -44 lots and short positions by +2 lots. Total turnover for silver contracts was 673,064 lots, up 6.16% from the prior session.

In precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings were unchanged at 1,050.63 tonnes, while silver ETF holdings also remained flat at 15,339.36 tonnes.

Monitoring arbitrage metrics for 2026-09-09, the domestic premium for gold stood at 4.05 yuan/gram, while silver posted a discount of -47.10 yuan/kilogram. The gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 58.69, down -0.70% day-on-day, while the overseas gold-silver ratio was 66.67, a change of -0.74%.

On the fundamental side, for the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market on the last trading day (2026-09-09), gold turnover reached 30,900 kilograms, up 5.83% from the prior day, while silver turnover was 279,622 kilograms, down -13.56%. Gold delivery stood at 11,872 kilograms and silver delivery at 14,790 kilograms.

For the gold strategy, the outlook remains neutral. Market risk sentiment is currently brewing, and the evening's US Treasury buyback ceiling of $6 billion fell short of expectations, potentially driving yields higher. This may slightly dampen demand for gold investment. Therefore, gold prices are expected to maintain a range-bound pattern in the near term while awaiting CPI data. The Au2610 contract is projected to fluctuate within a range of 950 yuan/gram to 965 yuan/gram.

For the silver strategy, the outlook is also neutral. The logic for silver mirrors that of gold, with prices similarly expected to trade sideways. The Ag2610 contract is projected to move within a range of 16,000 yuan/kilogram to 17,000 yuan/kilogram.

For arbitrage strategies, the recommendation is to stand aside for now. For options strategies, the recommendation is also to hold off.

Key risks to monitor include overseas liquidity risks and the continued exodus of speculative positions.