**Market Analysis**

**Online Quotes** - **Gemini Cooperation**: Maersk's Shanghai-Rotterdam rates for Week 48 are $1,240/$2,080, while early December rates are $1,600/$2,500. HPL-SPOT quotes for late November shipments are $1,435/$2,335, early December at $2,835–$3,235/FEU, and late December at $4,035/FEU. Maersk announced a December rate hike to $2,080/$3,200. - **MSC + Premier Alliance**: MSC's late November rates are $1,425/$2,365, early December at $1,485/$2,465. ONE's late November rates are $1,235/$1,935, early December at $1,565/$2,435. HMM's Shanghai-Rotterdam late November quotes are $1,268/$2,106, early December at $1,468/$2,506. YML's Nov 15–30 rates are $1,450/$2,400. MSC announced an early December hike to $1,860/$3,100. - **Ocean Alliance**: CMA's Shanghai-Rotterdam late November rates are $1,585/$2,745, early December at $3,445–$3,545/FEU, and late December at $3,945–$4,045/FEU. EMC's late November quotes are $1,855/$2,810, early December at $2,005/$3,110. OOCL's late November rates are $2,300–$2,400/FEU, early December at $1,830/$3,230. CMA announced a December hike to $1,800/$3,200.

**Geopolitical Update** Israel’s Defense Minister stated that Hamas’ tunnel network in Gaza must be destroyed, with military operations ongoing to achieve this objective.

**Supply Dynamics** - **November**: Remaining three weeks average weekly capacity at 275,800 TEU, with Weeks 47/48/49 at 278,700/269,000/279,600 TEU respectively. Ten blank sailings and one TBN (to-be-named) are scheduled, including four by MSC/PA, one by Gemini, and five by Ocean Alliance (with one TBN likely converting to a blank sailing). - **December**: Average weekly capacity at 313,000 TEU, with Weeks 50/51/52/53 at 333,000/270,000/314,200/334,700 TEU. Four TBNs and one blank sailing are planned (three by Ocean Alliance, one by MSC/PA).

**December Contracts** Market focus remains on pricing execution. Carriers aim to sustain higher rates ahead of annual contract negotiations. Current trends suggest: - Maersk’s late November rates dropped to $2,000–$2,100/FEU, MSC at $1,425/$2,365, PA Alliance at $1,900–$2,100/FEU, and OOCL at $2,300–$2,400/FEU, with a mid-range of $2,100–$2,200/FEU. - December hikes: Maersk ($2,080/$3,200), MSC ($1,860/$3,100), CMA ($1,800/$3,200). ONE’s early December rate is $1,565/$2,435, Maersk at $2,500/FEU, OOCL at $3,230/FEU, and MSC at $2,465/FEU. Market watches for further mid-December hikes.

**February 2026 Contracts** Potential divergence exists, though short-term pressure from resumed sailings persists. The EC2602 contract’s final trading day is February 9, 2026, with settlement based on late January and early February averages. Lunar New Year (February 16) may delay carrier pricing decisions, influencing contract valuations.

**Market Data (Nov 20, 2025)** - **EC Futures**: Total open interest at 71,395 lots, daily volume at 40,631 lots. EC2602 closed at 1,631.00, EC2604 at 1,163.00, EC2606 at 1,381.10, EC2608 at 1,505.00, EC2610 at 1,109.00, EC2512 at 1,775.70. - **SCFI Rates (Nov 14)**: Shanghai-Europe at $1,417/TEU, Shanghai-US West Coast at $1,823/FEU, Shanghai-US East Coast at $2,600/FEU. - **SCFIS (Nov 17)**: Shanghai-Europe at 1,357.67 points, Shanghai-US West Coast at 1,238.42 points.

**2025 Fleet Deliveries** Year-to-date, 226 container ships delivered (1.879 million TEU), including 71 vessels of 12,000–16,999 TEU (1.072 million TEU) and 12 vessels over 17,000 TEU (253,800 TEU).

**Strategy** - **Single Position**: December contracts volatile; February contracts moderately bullish. - **Arbitrage**: None currently.

**Risks** - **Downside**: Weaker-than-expected欧美 demand, steep oil price declines, excess vessel deliveries, inadequate idling, Red Sea resolution. - **Upside**: Economic recovery, supply chain disruptions, carrier capacity cuts, prolonged Red Sea disruptions.