China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has initiated coverage on ONEROBOTICS (06600) with an Outperform industry rating and set a target price of HK$140.00. This valuation is based on an 18.4x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2026, implying a potential upside of 32% from the current price, which corresponds to a 2026 P/S of 14.0x.

ONEROBOTICS is a leading company in the home AI robotics sector. CICC forecasts the company's revenue for 2026 and 2027 to reach RMB 1.49 billion and RMB 2.38 billion, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 65.5% and 59.8%. The firm believes ONEROBOTICS demonstrates a strong focus on the smart home ecosystem, with steadily improving profitability and increased investments in robotics hardware, data, and model development.

CICC's key analysis includes: ONEROBOTICS, founded in 2015 with a core team from Harbin Institute of Technology, is a global leader in home embodied intelligent robotics systems. In 2024, it ranked first in the global AI home embodied robotics market by retail sales, with an 11.9% market share. For 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 900 million, a 47.7% increase year-over-year, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 25 million and an adjusted net profit of RMB 12.766 million.

Looking ahead to 2026, CICC anticipates incremental contributions from robots designed for tennis, companionship, and caregiving services.

As a pioneer in the "one brain, multiple forms" architecture: 1) On the product front: The company's strategy centers on its self-developed brain, OneModel, supporting a diverse matrix of home robots. In 2025, enhanced execution robots accounted for 57% of revenue, while perception and decision-making systems contributed 33%. 2) On the R&D front: ONEROBOTICS is intensifying its data asset accumulation and supply chain investments for 2026, recently securing a RMB 45 million embodied intelligent data infrastructure project in Shenzhen.

The company has demonstrated strong overseas expansion and high customer retention. Revenue grew consistently from RMB 275 million in 2022 to RMB 901 million in 2025, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 48.5%. In 2025, overseas revenue exceeded 95% of the total, with notable competitiveness in Japan, Europe, and North America. CICC expects the launch of new products and further development of overseas channels to accelerate in 2026.

Potential catalysts include a recovery in sentiment towards the humanoid robotics industry and better-than-expected sales of new product launches.

Risk factors include fluctuations in overseas demand, foreign exchange volatility, slower-than-expected new product development, risks related to supply chain and quality control, and dependence on online sales channels.