Global Asset Manager AllianceBernstein Downplays AI Slowdown Fears, Citing Unchanged Tech Financing Plans

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3小时前

Fixed income experts at global asset manager AllianceBernstein argue that calls for a slower pace of artificial intelligence development will not deter major technology companies from advancing their financing and capital expenditure plans.

Thierry Taglione, senior fixed income investment strategist at AllianceBernstein, said these are long-term financing initiatives when discussing the funding actions of hyperscalers and data center operators. He acknowledged the slowdown concern is legitimate but emphasized they are discussing financing with tenors of ten years or longer, which will not be derailed by a single weekend of news.

The strategist's comments came following unprecedented coordinated calls for caution from AI industry leaders. Anthropic's Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei published a warning article on September 12, urging a slower pace in frontier AI model development. He stated that the risks associated with AI are serious and that time must be taken to address these challenges. The call quickly gained support from two prominent figures, with Elon Musk reposting Amodei's article on X and adding his agreement, while OpenAI's Sam Altman also voiced alignment on the platform, emphasizing the need to control the pace of frontier AI advancement.

AI-related stocks experienced a pullback on Monday amid concerns about potentially slower AI development. This followed growing investor worries about credit risks and whether AI infrastructure investments will eventually generate adequate returns. Despite these concerns, AllianceBernstein still expects leading AI hyperscalers to continue increasing nominal capital expenditure in the near term, projecting spending to exceed one trillion dollars next year. However, the firm warned that spending will slow and eventually fade over the coming years, which could weigh on overall US economic growth over the long run, leaving many questions about how long this AI-driven expansion can persist.

According to AllianceBernstein's data, bond issuance tied to major global hyperscalers and data centers has already surpassed 330 billion dollars year-to-date, marking an unprecedented volume that has been one of the factors pressuring the long end of the US Treasury yield curve. Nevertheless, the firm still sees selective opportunities within the sector. Taglione noted that not all hyperscalers are created equal, and managers need to favor companies with strong free cash flow and lower leverage while underweighting those with tighter financial positions. He added that volatility may continue, but the long-term financing plans remain intact.

Meanwhile, Eric Liu, co-head of Asian fixed income at AllianceBernstein, observed that Chinese technology companies have been more disciplined in their spending and borrowing, focusing more on talent rather than massive data center construction. He indicated this divergence is already reflected in relative bond valuations and is expected to persist unless there is a substantial change in access to advanced chips. Liu also anticipates that data centers will eventually enter Asian bond markets for financing, expressing optimism that Asian markets will become less dull.

Adding to the counter-narrative, Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, also attempted to downplay AI slowdown concerns on Monday. He suggested that while markets worry about tech companies potentially slowing AI development, this is unlikely to disrupt the broader infrastructure buildout. Yardeni noted that there are already constraints on building data centers and other facilities, and he does not see infrastructure development slowing down, maintaining his S&P 500 year-end target of 8,400.

Yardeni believes the weekend calls for slowing AI development are more about establishing safety precautions rather than reducing capital expenditure. As technology becomes more powerful, stronger guardrails may become necessary, but this does not necessarily weaken the investment cycle. He also pointed to productivity data that supports the AI-driven growth narrative, arguing the economy remains in a productivity-driven technology boom. For the market, Yardeni's view is that AI concerns may create short-term volatility but are unlikely to halt the infrastructure investment needed to sustain the technology's continued expansion.

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