Citigroup has released a research report adjusting its earnings forecasts for Jiangxi Copper (00358). Incorporating the company's guidance, the firm has lowered its profit projections for the current and next fiscal years by 8% and 3%, respectively, to $12.8 billion and $12.7 billion. However, due to an increase in the assumed income tax rate, the bank has reduced its target price for Jiangxi Copper's Hong Kong-listed shares from HK$54.1 to HK$49.5, and for its A-shares (600362.SH) from RMB 64.8 to RMB 58.1. The bank stated that the current stock valuation remains attractive and reaffirmed its "Buy" rating.

The report's baseline forecasts for this year's copper and gold prices are $12,375 per ton and $4,775 per ounce, respectively. If copper or gold prices rise 10% above these baselines, Jiangxi Copper's net profit for the year is projected to increase by 8% and 3%, respectively. Additionally, the bank's baseline forecast for sulfuric acid prices this year is RMB 1,255 per ton. Assuming a 10% increase in sulfuric acid prices above the baseline, Jiangxi Copper's net profit is expected to grow by 5%.

Citigroup expects the company's smelting business to remain profitable, benefiting from strong sulfuric acid prices and a significant proportion of favorable long-term copper treatment and refining charge (TC/RC) contracts. If conflicts in the Middle East persist, the company is likely to continue benefiting from robust sulfuric acid prices.