Orient Securities: Fresh Snacks Gain Momentum, Supermarkets and Department Stores Poised to Benefit

Stock News
05/27

Fresh snacks are rapidly emerging, characterized by short shelf life, minimal or no additives, and a broad category focus with narrow product lines. The industry is in a phase of swift development. While challenges like the "impossible trinity" of scale, quality control, and price persist, certain constraints may see breakthroughs. Supermarkets and department stores are expected to advance their related business strategies. The key points are as follows:

The rapid rise of fresh snacks is defined by short shelf life, minimal or no additives, and a focused product range within broad categories. 1) In 2020, Jinlimen pioneered the "fresh snack" positioning. From 2023-24, brands like Yili, Jiduoguan, and Pumama validated and refined their single-store models in local markets. Starting 2025, leading brands are accelerating expansion, with some cross-industry giants like Chayan Yuese beginning trials. 2) According to LeadLeo Research Institute, China's fresh snack market is projected to grow from under RMB 5 billion in 2020 to RMB 18 billion in 2025, with a CAGR exceeding 40%. 3) Key features include: ① Short shelf life; for instance, over 46% of SKUs at Jinlimen's Wanxianghui store have a shelf life under 5 days, with fruits and milk tea at 1 day and baked goods at 3 days. ② Minimal or no additives; Jiduoguan promotes preservative-free fresh food, categorizing products from A to F based on ingredient list cleanliness. ③ Focused assortment; product lines are typically streamlined to 140–340 SKUs with a high proportion of proprietary, non-standard items and a monthly new product rate of 10–20%.

The "impossible trinity" of fresh snacks involves the difficulty of balancing scale, quality control, and price. 1) Spoilage: With shorter shelf lives, average spoilage rates of 8-15% are significantly higher than the approximately 1-3% in supermarkets, convenience stores, and bulk snack shops. Managing spoilage is critical across production, distribution, and sales, as increased rates impact net profit margins. 2) Costs: Preservative-free, clean formulations entail more complex processes, leading to relatively higher raw material and production costs. Current market homogeneity and the development of new products, which may require new cold chain logistics and management systems, could further elevate costs. 3) Scale: The need for dedicated cold chain distribution and short-shelf-life management processes might necessitate building proprietary factories or logistics networks, slowing the realization of economies of scale. 4) It is believed the challenge of simultaneously achieving scale, quality control, and competitive pricing in fresh snacks remains, distinguishing its growth logic from traditional retail or snack stores.

Supermarkets and department stores are likely to advance their fresh snack initiatives. 1) Based on the "Wheel of Retailing" theory, retail organizational change follows a cyclical, upward spiral. Current consumer demand for healthy eating and supply-side innovation jointly propel the fresh snack sector's development. 2) In response to e-commerce competition and shifting consumer habits, traditional supermarkets and department stores have been actively restructuring. Companies like Yonghui Superstores and BBK have shown positive results from adjustments. In Q1 2026, the sector's revenue growth was -7.8%, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing 26% (after excluding some highly volatile companies, these growth rates adjusted to 2.4% and 7.9%, respectively). It is anticipated that some companies may progress with fresh snack layouts, including: ① Developing in-house fresh snack operations, similar to previous discount store ventures. ② Introducing fresh snack formats within existing stores to boost customer traffic and increase purchase frequency, thereby further improving store efficiency.

Risks include intensified industry competition, slower-than-expected store expansion, and fluctuations in same-store performance.

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