Liquor Price Index February 11th Release: Premium Brands Consolidate at High Levels as Structural Divergence Persists

Deep News
02/11

Data collected by the "Liquor Price Index" over the past 24 hours indicates a slight overall softening in the average terminal retail prices for ten major Chinese baijiu products on February 11th. If one bottle of each of the ten major products were bundled for sale, the total price today would be 9,183 yuan, a decrease of 32 yuan from the previous day, marking a new low for the past four days. The market continues its trend of high-level consolidation with ongoing structural divergence. Among the ten major products, six experienced price declines, three saw increases, and one remained unchanged. On the upside, Xijiu Junpin led the gains with an increase of 7 yuan per bottle. Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. Feitian Moutai rose by 6 yuan per bottle, driven by pre-holiday consumption warming up and channel restocking demand. Gujing Gongjiu Gu 20 saw a small increase of 2 yuan per bottle. On the downside, Qinghualang and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ both fell by 13 yuan per bottle, while Gujiao 1573 dropped by 11 yuan per bottle, potentially due to the conclusion of pre-holiday stockpiling and some channels beginning to destock early. Premium Moutai declined by 6 yuan per bottle, Crystal Sword Nanchun decreased by 3 yuan per bottle, and Qinghua Fen 20 experienced a minor drop of 1 yuan per bottle. The price of Wuliangye普五第八代 remained stable, unchanged from yesterday. The daily data for the "Liquor Price Index" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions of the country, including but not limited to designated distributors of liquor companies, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sample data consists of the actual transacted terminal retail prices processed at each point over the past 24 hours, striving to provide objective, authentic, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu products for the public. Since the official iMoutai platform began selling Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle around New Year's Day and Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle starting January 9th, the magnetic influence of this new channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products has gradually become apparent. The liquor prices published daily by the "Liquor Price Index" follow a calculation rule weighted by real transaction volume, and verifiable prices from this platform are increasingly being incorporated into the calculation of the terminal retail prices for Feitian Moutai and Premium Moutai. In other significant baijiu industry news, a latest research report from Soochow Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu. The securities firm pointed out that as a leader in light-aroma baijiu, Fenjiu is steadily advancing its national expansion. The market share for light-aroma baijiu still has significant room for growth. Furthermore, the company's products across various price points are performing balancedly, channel management is continuously optimized, and development momentum is strong. Among liquor companies with revenues exceeding 20 billion yuan, Shanxi Fenjiu holds a significant growth advantage, with mid-to-long-term revenue potential reaching 60-70 billion yuan. The report also forecasts that Shanxi Fenjiu's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 12.25 billion yuan, 12.42 billion yuan, and 13.72 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit in 2026 is projected to see a slight increase of 1%, while the growth rate is expected to accelerate to 10% in 2027, with corresponding valuations at reasonable levels.

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