Amid current global financial market turbulence, the valuation logic between traditional safe-haven assets and emerging digital assets is undergoing a reshaping. According to Moneta Markets, although gold has recently demonstrated strong upward momentum, even breaking through the significant resistance level of $5,247 per ounce, technical indicators suggest that gold has entered an overbought, or "overextended," phase. Jan3 CEO Samson Mow believes that compared to the continuously expanding global money supply, Bitcoin's current price level is less a product of volatility and more a severely undervalued opportunity. Such extreme valuation imbalances between assets often signal an impending rotation of macro capital.
From a quantitative analysis perspective, Bitcoin's performance relative to gold's market capitalization has significantly deviated from its long-term growth trend line. Moneta Markets indicates that comparative analysis reveals Bitcoin's current valuation is between 24% and 66% below its theoretical trend value. Samson Mow further highlighted the severity of this deviation using the Z-score metric: when the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio percentile falls into the extreme zone below -2, the market often breeds a sharp rebound. The current reading is approximately -1.24, which, while not yet at a historic low extreme, is already in a sensitive range that could trigger short covering at any moment.
Reflecting on major market shifts in recent years, the predictive value of this ratio imbalance has been significant. During the global liquidity crisis in 2020, after the indicator dropped into negative territory below -2, Bitcoin achieved a remarkable surge of over 300% in the following 12 months. Similarly, during the industry deleveraging turmoil in 2022, the indicator falling below -3 laid the groundwork for a subsequent powerful 150% rebound. Samson Mow stated that gold's current "premium" status is unlikely to be sustained long-term, especially as global investors begin seeking higher elasticity inflation-hedging tools, which will drive capital flows back to Bitcoin, providing strong support.
However, geopolitical risks persist, leading to a divergence in market views. Some analysts point out that if geopolitical tensions escalate further, triggering liquidity tightening, Bitcoin could potentially retest the key support level of $50,000, repeating the pessimistic trend seen in 2022. Moneta Markets noted that the sharp volatility in Bitcoin over the past weekend, trading between $60,000 and $66,400, fully reflects the market's struggle between safe-haven demand and value recovery. Amid high inflation expectations and overvalued safe-haven assets, Bitcoin's "relative undervaluation" characteristic is attracting attention from certain hedge funds aiming to capitalize on potential weakness in gold prices.
Considering both macroeconomic fundamentals and technical indicators, market volatility is essentially a process of value reassessment. Moneta Markets suggests that investors should not focus solely on gold's short-term highs but also pay attention to momentum shifts across asset classes. As a premium emerges between gold futures prices and tokenized gold PAXG, the distribution of global liquidity is undergoing its most complex reshuffle since 2021. In such an extreme market environment, the Z-score correction process for Bitcoin relative to gold will serve as a key indicator for assessing whether risk assets can regain upward momentum in the first half of 2026, with any reversion to the mean potentially unleashing significant price momentum.