Tianqi Lithium Corporation forecasts a profit increase of up to 18 times, while Salt Lake Co., Ltd. and Zangge Mining have doubled their net profits. Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. has significantly shifted from loss to profit. Overall, driven by strong demand from downstream power and energy storage batteries and the stabilization and rebound of lithium carbonate prices, lithium mining companies have re-entered a "profit-making mode." According to multiple sources, the market performance of lithium carbonate in the first quarter is expected to persist throughout the year. Industry experts generally believe that, given limited supply growth and strong downstream demand, lithium carbonate supply is likely to remain tight for the year, with a low probability of significant price fluctuations. Companies with low costs and high self-sufficiency rates are expected to maintain a leading position in the new competitive landscape.
Since Zimbabwe imposed a comprehensive ban on lithium ore exports at the end of February, no shipments of lithium concentrate have been dispatched. Although export quotas have been allocated, actual shipments will take time, with transit periods potentially lasting up to three months. Assuming shipments resume by the end of April, the lengthy transportation time to domestic lithium salt plants will still impact raw material supply in May and June, possibly affecting July production as well. Recently, four lithium mica mines in Jiangxi simultaneously published assessment reports for mining right transfer proceeds. Subsequent license renewals will enter a停产-environmental assessment phase, intensifying concerns about supply shortages in the second and third quarters.
A research report from China Securities Co., Ltd. indicates that the entire industry chain is in a state of relatively low inventory. Downstream production schedules are expected to increase month by month, supported by strong growth in energy storage and new energy vehicle export data. Weak supply expectations, strong consumption realities, and low industrial inventories provide upward support for prices.
Related Hong Kong stock concepts include: Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696), Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. (01772), LOPAL TECH (02465), CNGR (02579), and CHINA RAILWAY (00390).