China's passenger vehicle market showed measured growth in early July, with retail sales reaching 571,000 units from July 1-13 according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). This represents a 7% year-on-year increase, though a 5% decline from June's comparable period. Cumulative retail volume for 2025 now stands at 11.473 million units, reflecting 11% annual growth.
Automakers' wholesale shipments during the same timeframe reached 555,000 units – a robust 34% year-on-year surge despite being 7% lower than June. Year-to-date wholesale figures climbed to 13.835 million units, up 13% annually. The new energy vehicle (NEV) segment demonstrated particular vigor, with retail sales hitting 332,000 units (26% YoY growth) and wholesale volume at 316,000 units (37% YoY increase). NEV retail penetration reached 58.1%, while wholesale penetration stood at 56.9%.
Weekly performance revealed divergent trends: July's first week recorded average daily retail sales of 40,000 units (1% YoY gain, 6% MoM drop), while the second week accelerated to 48,000 daily units (11% YoY growth, 4% MoM decline). Wholesale patterns mirrored this acceleration, with first-week daily shipments at 39,000 units (39% YoY jump) and second week at 46,000 units (31% YoY increase, 12% MoM contraction).
Underpinning these figures, China's economic resilience continues to surprise, particularly through export channels which have stabilized domestic demand foundations. July's 23 working days offer ample production time, though structural market shifts are prompting extended summer shutdowns at some traditional automakers grappling with fuel vehicle inventory pressures.
Historical comparisons reveal evolving seasonal patterns: July's contribution to annual sales averaged 6.9% during 2014-2019 but climbed to 8.4% in 2020-2024. The vehicle replacement rate has steadied above 60% since February, emerging as a primary market driver. Policy clarity around trade-in programs should mitigate market volatility, with local governments urged to optimize subsidy planning and coordination.
The pickup truck segment maintained strong momentum, with June sales of 48,000 units (7.5% YoY growth) bringing first-half volume to 307,000 units (16.4% YoY increase). Great Wall Motor solidified its leadership amid the "one dominant player and three strong competitors" landscape featuring Jiangling Motors, Zhengzhou Nissan, and Jiangxi Isuzu. Regional demand concentrated in Southwest and Northwest China (44.5% of June sales), with Urumqi, Chongqing, and Chengdu emerging as top markets.
Pickup exports surged 41% YoY in H1 to 158,000 units, with June exports accounting for 55% of total sales. Key exporters including Jianghuai Automobile (JAC), BYD, SAIC Maxus, Changan Automobile, and Great Wall Motor now derive over half their pickup sales from overseas markets.
NEV pickups demonstrated explosive growth: June sales of 7,000 units represented a staggering 506% YoY leap, while H1 volume reached 41,000 units (890% YoY surge). BYD led the segment with 3,742 June sales, followed by Geely's Radar EV (1,746 units) and Changan's extended-range models (661 units).
Battery production and installation maintained vigorous expansion. June output reached 129.2 GWh (51.4% YoY growth), while installations hit 58.2 GWh (35.9% YoY increase). Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries dominated with 81% market share. NEV production under certification totaled 1.11 million units in June (21% YoY growth), pushing H1 output to 5.89 million units (36% YoY increase).
The competitive battery landscape shows CATL and BYD leading, though BYD regained traction in Q2 after CATL surpassed its LFP market share in 2024. Emerging players like Eve Energy, CALB, Sunwoda, REPT Battero, SVOLT, and Ji Dian New Energy showed notable progress. Battery energy density distribution shifted significantly, with 125-140 Wh/kg models capturing 61% share in Q2 (up 13 percentage points YoY) while >160 Wh/kg variants fell to 6% from 13% in 2024.
Industry analysis positions electrification and intelligence as symbiotic forces – the former creating the physical foundation, the latter enabling adaptive capabilities. The competitive frontier now centers on how intelligence enhances electrification through energy optimization and safety augmentation. H1 sales typically represent 48% of annual fuel vehicle targets, 40% for domestic NEVs, and 45% for exports. Achieving 44% of annual targets by mid-year is considered strong performance given market complexities.
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