China Renaissance reiterates Buy on UP Fintech with a $13.04 target, after a strong 2Q25 beat and record AUM growth.
• 2Q25 earnings strong beat on strong top line and operating leverage.
• Client assets hit record high, helped by solid net asset inflow and mark-tomarket gains.
• We have a BUY rating with a TP of US$13.04 (18.0x 2025E P/E).
2Q25 results beat. UP Fintech (TIGR) posted 2Q25 non-GAAP net profit of US$44.5mn, +23% QoQ and +756% YoY, beating our estimates and Visible Alpha consensus by 16%/ 44%, helped by strong top line across the board and operating leverage. Total revenue was up 13% QoQ to US$138.7mn, beating our estimates/ Visible Alpha consensus by 6%/ 9%, due to robust commission income (+11.1% QoQ), interest income (+9.1%) and other revenues (+57.6%). TIGR enjoyed a solid net asset inflow (US$3bn) from retail clients and mark-to-market gains (US$3.2bn) which led to a 13.5% sequential growth in client assets in 2Q25, while the trading volume of stocks and trading velocity both rose QoQ. However, new paying clients dropped 34.6% QoQ to 39,800 in 2Q25, below our expectation, while customer acquisition cost rose to US$248 (vs US$178 in 1Q25). 1H25 new paying clients achieved 67% of the company’s 2025 target of 150,000. Highlights of 2Q25 results include:
• New paying clients numbered 39,800 in 2Q25, down 34.6% QoQ and 18.6% YoY, and TIGR’s total paying clients reached 1.19mn (+21% YoY).
• Client assets reached US$52bn, +14% QoQ (+36% YoY), helped by strong net asset inflow from retail clients and mark-to-market gains, with average assets per paying client of US$43,646, +10% QoQ (+12% YoY). Margin financing and securities lending balance (MFSL) was US$5.7bn (11% of client assets), +9% QoQ (+65% YoY). • Trading volume of stocks was US$68.2bn, +15% QoQ (+104% YoY), with annualized trading velocity (trading volume/average client assets) of 5.6x vs 3.8x/ 5.4x in 2Q24/ 1Q25. The number of options and futures contracts traded reached 22.4mn, +10% QoQ (+84% YoY). Total trading volume (incl. stocks and derivatives) was US$284bn, +31% QoQ (+168% YoY), and gross commission rate was 2.3bps, -0.4bp QoQ.
• On corporate service, TIGR participated in 7 HK and 4 US IPOs (vs 4 in 1Q25). It added 30 new ESOP clients (vs. 20 added in 1Q25), taking the total to 663. • Net revenue mix shows a 51% contribution from net commissions in 2Q25 (vs 52% in 1Q25), 38% from net interest income (vs 40% in 1Q25) and 11% from other income (eg, IPO underwriting) (vs 8% in 4Q24).
• Adjusted net profit margin was 32.1% in 2Q25 (vs. 5.9% in 2Q24/ 29.4% in 1Q25). We have a BUY rating with a TP of US$13.04, based on a 2025E target P/E of 18.0x. Key risks: weak stock market sentiment, slower-than-expected market expansion, intensifying competition, lower-than expected MFSL demand, and tighter regulations.