Abstract

First Hawaiian, Inc. plans to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 24, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes the latest quarterly forecasts, reviews the prior quarter’s scorecard, and details what we see as the key operating and valuation drivers for the imminent update and near-term share performance.

Market Forecast

Consensus tracking indicates First Hawaiian’s first-quarter 2026 revenue is projected at 221.09 million US dollars, up 5.12% year over year, with adjusted EPS estimated at 0.535, up 16.67% year over year; operating profit (EBIT) is modeled at 112.65 million US dollars, implying 37.27% year-over-year growth, while gross margin and net margin forecasts are not explicitly provided. Taken together, expectations point to modest top-line expansion and a faster rebound in earnings power, consistent with operating leverage from costs and mix.

The core revenue engine remains its retail-facing franchise, where deposit pricing discipline and stable customer activity are expected to anchor net interest income while fee income supports the noninterest line. Within the portfolio, Commercial Banking appears positioned to deliver incremental contribution off a 255.34 million US dollars revenue base last quarter, with the company-wide top-line forecast of 5.12% year-over-year growth providing the broader context for segment momentum.

Last Quarter Review

In the fourth quarter of 2025, First Hawaiian posted revenue of 207.41 million US dollars, up 25.35% year over year; GAAP net income attributable to shareholders was 69.93 million US dollars, translating to a 32.06% net profit margin, while adjusted EPS came in at 0.56, up 36.59% year over year; gross profit margin was not disclosed in the dataset.

A notable financial highlight was the sequential movement in profitability: GAAP net income declined 5.29% quarter over quarter even as year-over-year revenue and EPS expanded, and revenue finished 18.08 million US dollars below the prior estimate, suggesting a conservative print relative to expectations. In terms of business mix, Retail Banking generated 628.83 million US dollars of revenue in the period, Commercial Banking delivered 255.34 million US dollars, and Treasury and Other contributed negative 3.38 million US dollars; while segment-level year-over-year growth was not specified, the company-wide top line grew 25.35% year over year, indicating broad-based demand resilience into year-end.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Retail franchise earnings cadence and net interest income trajectory

Retail-facing activities are the bedrock of First Hawaiian’s earnings model this quarter, and the forecasted 5.12% year-over-year revenue growth to 221.09 million US dollars implicitly relies on steady net interest income supported by customer deposit dynamics and measured loan demand. With adjusted EPS projected to advance 16.67% year over year to 0.535, the setup suggests some operating leverage as funding costs stabilize against asset yields that are still benefitting from the prior rate environment, though the degree of incremental margin expansion remains uncertain without explicit guidance on margin. The 32.06% net profit margin delivered last quarter provides a profitability baseline; even absent a formal margin outlook for the current print, consensus EBIT growth of 37.27% year over year underscores expectations for improved conversion of revenue into operating income. Retail Banking’s large revenue base in the last reported period (628.83 million US dollars) highlights the sensitivity of consolidated results to small changes in deposit costs, fees, and consumer credit trends; as such, incremental commentary on deposit betas, promotional pricing, and card or service fees will be critical to gauging whether the EPS outperformance implied by estimates is sustainable into midyear. Finally, the sequential net income dip of 5.29% last quarter frames the execution bar: investors are likely to watch for evidence that sequential pressure has abated, which would validate the double-digit year-over-year EPS growth implied for the first quarter.

Most promising business: Commercial Banking and fee adjacencies as incremental growth levers

Commercial Banking remains the clearest avenue for incremental contribution near term, given its 255.34 million US dollars revenue base in the last disclosed breakdown and the potential for balanced loan growth and fee flows around treasury services, payments, and advisory. The projected expansion in EBIT to 112.65 million US dollars this quarter, up 37.27% year over year, points to improved operating efficiency and mix that can be consistent with healthy corporate activity and disciplined expense control—both of which typically show up in Commercial Banking performance. While segment-specific year-over-year figures are not enumerated, the overall revenue growth expectation of 5.12% year over year is a reasonable context for Commercial’s directional trajectory, especially if credit quality remains benign and line utilizations hold or improve. Management updates on pipelines, pricing on new production, and fee momentum should therefore carry outsized importance; if those datapoints align with the top-line estimate, the unit can add to the positive earnings delta implied by the 16.67% year-over-year EPS growth forecast.

Key stock-price swing factors this quarter

The largest variable for share reaction is likely to be margin commentary and the interplay between asset yields and funding costs, as investors triangulate whether last quarter’s 32.06% net profit margin can be maintained or improved in the absence of a reported gross margin metric. Given the fourth quarter’s sequential net income decline of 5.29%, a return to sequential stabilization—evidenced by in-line to better revenue of 221.09 million US dollars and adjusted EPS around 0.535—would be interpreted as a constructive inflection. Secondly, the quality of earnings will matter: consensus implies faster earnings growth than revenue (EBIT +37.27% vs. revenue +5.12% year over year), so any color on expense discipline, efficiency ratios, and the balance between net interest income and fees will shape how credible the operating leverage story appears for the remainder of 2026. Lastly, one-off corporate developments can color sentiment at the margin; the recent leadership transition in wealth management signals an intent to refresh strategy and could, over time, support cross-sell into deposits and investments, but investors will look for near-term signals that the transition is orderly and that client activity is stable.

Beyond the headline figures, there are several line items that can tilt interpretations of the quarter. On the revenue side, clarity on loan growth across consumer and commercial books, repayment speeds, and any shifts in fixed versus variable-rate exposure may help investors map the forward sensitivity of net interest income to rate paths. On noninterest sources, commentary on service charges, card fees, and wealth-related income will help explain whether the 16.67% year-over-year EPS estimate is underpinned by a diversified mix or more narrowly driven by rate-sensitive spreads. On credit, while no explicit ratios are provided here, qualitative updates on delinquency trends, criticized-classified loans, and provisioning discipline will be important to the durability of the EBIT trajectory that consensus currently models.

Finally, the stock could react meaningfully to guidance color that bridges the quarter’s reported cadence to second-quarter run rates. If management articulates confidence that the revenue baseline near 221.09 million US dollars is supported by stable deposit costs and a measured loan pipeline, investors may reward the shares even on in-line prints. Conversely, if the quarter’s revenue mix skews toward lower-quality items or if operating expenses guide higher, the market may question whether the expected 16.67% year-over-year EPS growth adequately reflects underlying run-rate earnings power.

Analyst Opinions

Bearish views appear to dominate the directional commentary entering the print, with negative ratings carrying more weight than neutral stances; the negative cohort argues that valuation leaves less room for disappointment given a conservative revenue ramp and sensitivity to funding costs. A prominent bank’s analyst has reiterated a Sell rating with a 25.00 US dollars price target, emphasizing that modest revenue growth expectations (+5.12% year over year to 221.09 million US dollars) and the need for continued cost containment leave the earnings trajectory vulnerable if net interest income softens. This camp also highlights that the fourth-quarter revenue result undershot earlier estimates by 18.08 million US dollars, and net income declined 5.29% sequentially, underscoring execution risk if deposit costs or fee volumes move unfavorably.

The bear thesis ties directly to this quarter’s setup. First, while adjusted EPS is forecast to grow 16.67% year over year to 0.535, bears see a risk that the earnings mix could tilt toward nonrecurring or less repeatable items if the margin backdrop proves less supportive; absent explicit guidance on net margin for the quarter, they prefer to see tangible evidence of stable or improving profitability against the 32.06% baseline reported last quarter. Second, they flag the asymmetric risk around expenses: consensus implies faster EBIT growth (+37.27% year over year) than revenue (+5.12%), which requires tight execution on efficiency; any upward drift in compensation, technology, or regulatory costs could compress the operating leverage that estimates currently assume. Third, skeptics want clearer signs that retail deposit pricing has normalized sufficiently to protect net interest income, given that small changes here have an outsized impact on profitability for a retail-centric franchise.

Importantly, the negative viewpoint does not dismiss the possibility of an in-line or even modestly better print; rather, it frames the balance of risks as tilted toward cautious interpretation unless the company demonstrates sequential stabilization in GAAP net income, healthy fee trends, and controlled expenses. Should management provide convincing detail that the revenue base is durable at roughly 221.09 million US dollars and that expense discipline can carry EBIT toward the 112.65 million US dollars mark, the bearish stance could moderate. Until then, this perspective maintains that the shares may be vulnerable to any shortfall versus the 0.535 adjusted EPS marker, particularly if commentary implies that second-quarter run-rate margins will lag the year-ago baseline.