Investment markets consistently revolve around four fundamental principles: preserving capital, managing risk, generating returns, and achieving consistent, long-term profitability. Success should not be judged by daily wins or losses. Is a profit a matter of chance or a result of skill? Market survivors are ultimately those who can navigate cycles and maintain steady profits over time. The essence of trading lies in developing sound habits and strictly executing a plan. A disciplined trade relies on a stable mindset, appropriate position sizing, and solid technical analysis. Collaboration is never forced; it requires mutual commitment. Opportunity favors the prepared; a single correct choice can outweigh a hundred instances of blind effort. If you are seeking professional guidance and I possess the requisite expertise, mutual trust can pave the way toward achieving potential gains.

What recent developments are influencing the movements of gold and crude oil? How should future gold price direction be assessed? During early Asian trading on Friday, spot gold surged to a high of $4246.40 per ounce. This strong rebound effectively erased Wednesday's entire decline and reignited market enthusiasm for gold as a safe-haven asset. Thursday witnessed a dramatic reversal in the spot gold market. Initially dropping to a six-month low of $4023.85 per ounce due to Middle East tensions, gold rapidly rallied following news that former U.S. President Trump had called off planned strikes against Iran. It ultimately closed up 3.4% at $4210.58 per ounce. Investors are now reassessing the situation. With a potential for peace emerging, safe-haven demand has cooled rapidly, oil prices have retreated, expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have diminished, and the U.S. dollar has weakened. Within this complex environment where geopolitics and macroeconomics intertwine, can gold sustain its rebound? Is a bull market restarting? Although geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, U.S. economic data continues to provide additional support for gold. Wednesday's release of the May Consumer Price Index showed inflation rising at its fastest pace in three years, driven by a sharp increase in energy prices. Thursday's May Producer Price Index (PPI) also exceeded expectations, rising 1.1% month-over-month. These figures remind investors that the pass-through effects of Middle East conflicts on energy prices have not fully dissipated, and inflationary pressures persist. Concurrently, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a December Fed rate hike fell from 72% to 59% after Trump's announcement, with some traders even pricing in a 55% chance. Investors are awaiting the first Federal Reserve meeting chaired by Jerome Powell next week, with widespread expectations that policymakers will hold interest rates steady. Initial jobless claims rose to 229,000, slightly above forecasts, further highlighting economic uncertainties. In this environment, gold's "dual nature" as both an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset is fully demonstrated. Even if a peace agreement advances, it may take months for oil markets to fully normalize, and the inflationary pass-through effects will continue to influence the policy path, providing long-term support for gold prices. In the short term, this rebound in gold appears relatively mature, and some profit-taking could trigger a technical pullback. Uncertainty remains regarding the details of any agreement—including the release of frozen Iranian assets, handling of nuclear issues, and the stance of hardliners within the Republican party. Should negotiations falter, geopolitical risk premiums could quickly return, potentially offering renewed support for gold. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, even if a peace agreement is successfully signed, the global economy faces multiple challenges: lingering effects of high energy prices, sticky inflation, uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path, and broader geopolitical risks. These factors will continue to support the appeal of gold as a portfolio diversification asset.

Analysis of Gold's Price Action on June 12

Gold Technical Analysis: Gold experienced significant volatility yesterday, quickly falling 50 points in early trading before rapidly recovering those losses. It surged again in the evening session, gaining nearly 200 points for the day and closing with a large bullish candlestick on the daily chart, suggesting a near-term bottom may be forming. Whether prices will subsequently make new lows remains uncertain at this point. Gold opened higher this morning, extending gains with a quick 40-point rally, pushing prices to test prior highs and a key Fibonacci retracement resistance level around the 61.8% level from this week's move. A technical pullback from this resistance before a decisive break is a normal market reaction. If prices successfully consolidate above this level, the bullish move could extend towards the 4300 and 4350 zones, where opportunities to initiate short positions may arise. The current market sentiment is akin to a rollercoaster, where a single statement can alter a trend. As it's Friday, the intraday expectation is for a correction following last night's advance. The morning price reached resistance at the hourly chart's acceleration line. The 4-hour chart still shows a bearish structure, with price action remaining within a descending channel. However, given yesterday's strong bullish close, a direct break below the Asian session low seems unlikely, suggesting the daytime session will likely be characterized by range-bound trading.

On the 4-hour chart, after three consecutive bearish sessions earlier in the week, yesterday saw a halt in the decline and a strong rebound, highlighting the high volatility where sharp declines are often followed by rapid recoveries. The initial resistance for the rebound lies at the 30-period moving average, followed by the descending channel breakout point near 4280 and the weekly opening price around 4328. Today marks the weekly close. Following yesterday's rebound, the market today leans towards closing lower again, but the Asian and European sessions need to first identify the initial rebound resistance high to determine optimal entry points for short positions. On the support side, the intraday low of 4160 serves as the primary short-term support. Holding above this level could allow for continuation long positions. The 4160 area represents a strong support zone formed by a previous resistance-turned-support level and is an ideal area for low-position long entries. If prices retrace to this zone, the market will likely transition into a consolidation phase. One must also be wary of potential stop-loss hunting by major players; a false breakout above resistance followed by a drop to test lows near the 4140 area cannot be ruled out. The hourly chart shows a rally followed by a pullback, and the 30-minute chart indicates a weak bearish correction. Therefore, today's strategy involves looking for shorting opportunities first, followed by long positions, treating the market as range-bound. In summary, for today's gold trading, the short-term operational idea suggested is to focus on buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance to watch is in the 4280-4300 area, while key short-term support lies in the 4140-4150 zone. It is crucial to maintain proper position sizing and set strict stop-losses; avoid letting losing positions run. Specific entry levels should be based on real-time market conditions.

Trading Strategy Reference for Gold on June 12

Short Position Strategy:

Strategy One: Consider initiating a short position (sell) with a small portion of capital in the 4280-4290 area. Place a stop-loss above 4310. Target levels are 4220-4200, with a potential extension to 4150 if broken. (Note: Strategies are time-sensitive; more detailed layout suggestions are provided within real-time platforms for members.)

Long Position Strategy:

Strategy Two: Consider initiating a long position (buy) with a small portion of capital in the 4150-4160 area. Place a stop-loss below 4130. Target levels are 4220-4250, with a potential extension to 4300 if broken. (Note: Strategies are time-sensitive; more detailed layout suggestions are provided within real-time platforms for members.)

Risk Warning: All operations must strictly control position size and set stop-losses to guard against extreme market moves triggered by unexpected events. An important reminder: market news can be misleading. As retail traders, our access to information is limited. While we should monitor news, we should not be overly swayed by it, lest we be led by the nose. Observing more and acting less impulsively is often the best strategy.

What Should Beginners Do If Their Trades Are Losing?

1. If the loss is very deep, it indicates the original trade idea was likely wrong, perhaps encountering a strong trend. In such cases, one must assess whether the trend is likely to reverse. Strong trends often persist. If one foolishly waits for prices to return to the entry point, immense pain will follow. The simplest approach for a deeply losing position is often to cut the loss. This is not a joke. Instead of waiting for months, paying daily fees (like swap), and worrying about a margin call, it's better to free up capital and find a reliable mentor. A few well-executed trades can often recover the loss.

2. If the loss is not deep—for instance, just a few points beyond the intended stop-loss level due to not using one—then one can be more flexible. Pure, sustained trends are rare; short-term markets more often exhibit choppy or ranging behavior. Such positions can often be managed based on technical analysis, possibly even turning a loss into a profit. This scenario is more common among traders.

3. Finally, if you frequently find yourself in either of the above situations—either with deep losses or repeated smaller losses—the issue likely lies with your trading methodology. This market is fair; losses are never without cause. To make profits, analysis is indispensable. The simplest path is to learn how to analyze the markets yourself.